Development and validation of a risk-prediction nomogram for patients with ureteral calculi associated with urosepsis: A retrospective analysis. Hu Ming,Zhong Xintai,Cui Xuejiang,Xu Xun,Zhang Zhanying,Guan Lixian,Feng Quanyao,Huang Yiheng,Hu Weilie PloS one OBJECTIVES:To develop and validate an individualized nomogram to predict probability of patients with ureteral calculi developing into urosepsis. METHODS:The clinical data of 747 patients with ureteral calculi who were admitted from June 2013 to December 2015 in Affiliated Nanhai Hospital of Southern Medical University were selected and included in the development group, while 317 ureteral calculi patients who were admitted from January 2016 to December 2016 were included in the validation group. The independent risk factors of ureteral calculi associated with urosepsis were screened using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The corresponding nomogram prediction model was drawn according to the regression coefficients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and the GiViTI calibration belts were used to estimate the discrimination and calibration of the prediction model, respectively. RESULTS:Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the five risk factors of gender, mean computed tomography(CT) attenuation value of hydronephrosis, functional solitary kidney, urine white blood cell(WBC) count and urine nitrite were independent risk factors of ureteral calculi associated with urosepsis. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the development group and validation group were 0.913 and 0.874 respectively, suggesting that the new prediction model had good discrimination capacity. P-values of the GiViTI calibration test of the two groups were 0.247 and 0.176 respectively, and the 95% CIs of GiViTI calibration belt in both groups did not cross the diagonal bisector line. Therefore the predicted probability of the model was consistent with the actual probability which suggested that the calibration of the prediction model in both groups were perfect and prediction model had strong concordance performance. CONCLUSION:The individualized prediction model for patients with ureteral calculi can facilitate improved screening and early identification of patients having higher risk of urosepsis. 10.1371/journal.pone.0201515

Construction and validation of the nomogram predictive model for post-percutaneous nephrolithotomy urinary sepsis. World journal of urology OBJECTIVE:This study aimed to construct and validate a simple and accurate clinical nomogram for predicting the occurrence of post-percutaneous nephrolithotomy sepsis, aiming to assist urologists in the early identification, warning, and early intervention of urosepsis, and to provide certain evidence-based medicine basis. METHODS:This study included patients who underwent PCNL surgery due to kidney or upper ureteral stones at the Department of Urology, Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, from January 2019 to September 2022. This study utilized univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to screen and evaluate the risk factors for sepsis and construct a predictive model. An evaluation was performed using the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis curve. All statistical analyses were conducted using R version 4.2. RESULTS:A total of 946 patients who underwent post-PCNL were included in this study, among whom 69 patients (7.29%) developed post-PCNL urinary sepsis. Multiple-factor logistic regression analysis identified four independent risk factors associated with post-PCNL urinary sepsis, including positive urinary nitrite (OR = 5.9, P < 0.001), positive urine culture (OR = 7.54, P < 0.001), operative time ≥ 120 min (OR = 20.93, P = 0.0052), and stone size ≥ 30 mm (OR = 13.81, P = 0.0015). The nomogram model demonstrated good accuracy with an AUC value of 0.909, and in the validation cohort, the AUC value was 0.922. The calibration curve indicated a better consistency between the predictive line chart and the actual occurrence of post-PCNL urinary sepsis. The decision curve analysis curve showed favorable clinical utility. CONCLUSION:Preoperative positive urine culture, positive urinary nitrite, operative time ≥ 120 min, and stone size ≥ 30 mm are independent risk factors for developing post-PCNL urinary sepsis. The constructed line chart based on these factors effectively assesses the risk of urinary sepsis in patients after PCNL. 10.1007/s00345-024-04828-2