Prognostic Value of Tumor Deposit Counts in Patients with Stage III Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study.
Journal of investigative surgery : the official journal of the Academy of Surgical Research
OBJECTIVE:To investigate the prognostic value of tumor deposits (TDs) counts in stage III colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and develop a prognostic nomogram. METHODS:Data on stage III CRC patients from 2010 to 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results () database. The Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess differences in survival outcomes among patients. The Cox regression analysis was performed to establish the independent prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival and to establish a nomogram. The nomograms' performance was evaluated by calibration plots and concordance index (C-index). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical utility of the prediction model. RESULTS:A total of 23,345 CRC patients were included in this study, and 3,578 (15.3%) had TDs. Cox multivariate regression analyses revealed that age, race, histological tumor grade, the administered chemotherapy, pathological type, T-stage, CEA, N-stage, peripheral nerve invasion, and TDs were independent prognostic factors. Patients with many TDs (=0/1-4, HR: 1.325,/≥5 HR: 2.223) had poorer cancer-specific survival. The prognostic value of the number of TDs was comparable to that of lymph node metastasis. The C-indices of the nomogram were superior to TNM staging in training (0.730 vs 0.646) and validation (0.714 vs 0.636) groups. DCA revealed that the nomogram had a higher clinical net benefit compared to TNM staging. CONCLUSIONS:TDs count is an adverse prognostic factor for stage III CRC patients. Furthermore, the TDs-based nomogram can accurately predict the prognostic outcomes for stage III CRC.
10.1080/08941939.2022.2069306
Predicting survival and prognosis in early-onset locally advanced colon cancer: a retrospective observational study.
International journal of colorectal disease
OBJECTIVE:To predict cancer-specific survival, a refined nomogram model and brand-new risk-stratifying system were established to classify the risk levels of patients with early-onset locally advanced colon cancer (LACC). METHODS:The clinical factors and survival outcomes of LACC cases from the SEER database from 2010 to 2019 were retrieved retrospectively. Early-onset and late-onset colon cancer were grouped according to the age (50 years old) at diagnosis. Differences between groups were compared to identify mutual significant variables. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was further performed and then constructed a nomogram. We compared it with the AJCC-TNM system. The external validation was performed for evaluation. Finally, a risk-stratifying system of patients with early-onset LACC was established. RESULTS:A total of 32,855 LACC patients were enrolled in, 4548 (13.84%) patients were included in the early-onset LACC group, and 28,307 (86.16%) patients were included in the late-onset LACC group. The external validation set included 228 early-onset LACC patients. Early-onset colon cancers had poorer prognosis (T4, N2, TNM stage III, CEA, tumor deposit, and nerve invasion), and a higher proportion received radiotherapy and systemic therapy (P<0.001). In the survival analysis, cancer-specific survival (CSS) was better in patients with early-onset LACC than in those with late-onset LACC (P <0.001). This nomogram constructed based on the results of COX analysis showed better accuracy in CSS prediction of early-onset LACC patients than AJCC-TNM system in the training set and external validation set (0.783 vs 0.728; 0.852 vs 0.773). CONCLUSION:We developed a novel nomogram model to predict CSS in patients with early-onset LACC it provided a reference in prognosis prediction and selection of individualized treatment, helping clinicians in decision-making.
10.1007/s00384-023-04543-1
A novel risk model for predicting peritoneal metastasis in colorectal cancer based on the SEER database.
Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology
BACKGROUND:Early detection and intervention could significantly improve the prognosis of patients with peritoneal metastasis (PM). Our main purpose was to develop a model to predict the risk of PM in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS:Patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database with CRC classified according to the AJCC 8th TNM staging system were selected for the study. After data pre-processing, the dataset was divided into a training set and a validation set. In the training set, univariate logistic analysis and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis were utilized to screen clinical features and construct a risk prediction model. Then, we validated the model using the confusion matrix, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves to examine its performance. RESULTS:The model constructed using stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis incorporated the following eight clinical features: age, tumor location, histological type, T stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, tumor deposits (TDs), log odds (LODDS) of metastatic lymph nodes, and extraperitoneal metastasis (EM). The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the model in the training and validation sets were 0.924 and 0.912, respectively. The accuracy and the recall ratio were higher than 0.8 in both cohorts. DCA and the calibration curves also confirmed its excellent predictive power. CONCLUSIONS:Our model can effectively predict the risk of PM in CRC patients, which is of great significance for the timely identification of patients at high risk of PM and further clinical decision-making.
10.1007/s00432-023-05368-9
Prognostic Significance of Tumor Deposits in Patients With Stage III Colon Cancer: A Nomogram Study.
Zheng Peilin,Chen Qiaoxing,Li Jiake,Jin Canguang,Kang Lina,Chen Donghan
The Journal of surgical research
BACKGROUND:The clinical characteristics of stage III colon cancer and the prognostic significance of tumor deposits were investigated, to construct a prognostic nomogram. METHODS:The data of patients were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Patients were randomized to a training or validation cohort. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze survival rates. In the training cohort, a prognostic nomogram was established via Cox regression and then tested in the validation cohort. The accuracy and discrimination of the nomogram were assessed using concordance indices (C-indices) and calibration curves. RESULTS:Of the 9246 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, 1788 (19.3%) had tumor deposits. Patients with tumor deposits only showed similar survival rates to those with lymph node metastases only (P = 0.83). Compared with these, patients with both tumor deposits and lymph node metastases exhibited significantly worse survival (P < 0.01). In the multivariate Cox regression analyses, the following were identified as independent prognostic indicators and adopted to formulate the nomogram: tumor deposits, age, ethnicity, T stage, the number of positive regional lymph nodes, grade, and carcinoembryonic antigen. In the training cohort, the calibration curve showed good consistency, and the concordance index of the nomogram for predicting overall survival reaches 0.727 (95% CI: 0.71524-0.73876), superior to the concordance index of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system (0.594, 95% CI: 0.58224-0.60576). These results are supported in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS:Tumor deposits may be an independent prognostic factor for patients with stage III colon cancer after colectomy. The nomogram constructed herein accurately predicted overall survival.
10.1016/j.jss.2019.07.099
Clinicopathological factors associated with synchronous distant metastasis and prognosis of stage T1 colorectal cancer patients.
Li Qiken,Wang Gang,Luo Jun,Li Bo,Chen Weiping
Scientific reports
It is rare and understudied for patients with stage T1 colorectal cancer to have synchronous distant metastasis. This study was to determine the clinicopathological factors associated with distant metastasis and prognosis. T1 colorectal cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were obtained from the SEER database. Logistic regression was applied to determine risk factors related to distant metastasis. Cox-proportional hazard models were used to identify the prognostic factors for patients with distant metastasis. Among 21,321 patients identified, 359 (1.8%) had synchronous distant metastasis and 1807 (8.5%) had lymph node metastasis. Multivariate analysis revealed that younger age, positive serum CEA, larger tumor size, positive tumor deposit, perineural invasion, lymph node metastasis, histology of non-adenocarcinoma and poorer differentiation were significantly associated with the increased risk of synchronous distant metastasis. Older age, female, Black, positive CEA, positive lymph node metastasis, positive tumor deposit, larger tumor size, no chemotherapy, inadequate lymph node harvesting and no metastasectomy were correlated with worse survival in these patients with synchronous distant metastasis. Patients with metastasis to the liver displayed the highest rate of positive CEA. We conclude that T1 colorectal cancer patients with multiple risk factors need thorough examinations to exclude synchronous distant metastasis. Chemotherapy, adequate lymph node cleaning and metastasectomy are associated with improved survival for those patients with distant metastases. Positive serum CEA may be useful in predicting distant metastases in patients at stage T1.
10.1038/s41598-021-87929-x
Reconsidering the prognostic significance of tumour deposit count in the TNM staging system for colorectal cancer.
Wang Song,Guan Xu,Ma Mingfei,Zhuang Meng,Ma Tianyi,Liu Zheng,Chen Haipeng,Jiang Zheng,Chen Yinggang,Wang Guiyu,Wang Xishan
Scientific reports
Although the occurrence of tumour deposits (TDs) without metastatic lymph nodes (mLNs) is classified as "N1c" in the 8 TNM staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC), the prognostic significance of the TD count is still controversial. A total of 39155 CRC patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The potential associations between baseline characteristics and TD status were evaluated using the χ test. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates were calculated by using the Kaplan-Meier method, and CSS comparisons were performed by using the log-rank test. The results showed that TD count was an important prognostic factor and that the number of TDs was negatively correlated with the prognosis of CRC patients. We found that the prognostic value of one TD is equivalent to that of two mLNs based on the comparison of CSS rates. Accordingly, we proposed a novel N staging system by integrating the TD count into the N category with the ratio of TDs to mLNs being 1:2. There were no prognostic differences in patients with or without TDs in each novel N category. Weighing one TD as two mLNs in this novel TNM staging system is superior to the "N1c" classification in the 8 TNM staging system in evaluating the prognosis of CRC patients.
10.1038/s41598-019-57041-2
Identifying the long-term survival beneficiary of chemotherapy for stage N1c sigmoid colon cancer.
Scientific reports
Sigmoid colon cancer often has an unsatisfactory prognosis. This study explored the effect of tumor deposits (TDs) on survival, and whether their presence/absence influence individualized treatment. Data of postoperative patients with sigmoid colon cancer were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and prognostic factors were identified using Cox regression analysis and random forest (RF). The nomogram's discrimination performance was evaluated using a concordance index (C-index), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis. The N1c group showed a worse prognosis than the N0 group. For N1c patients, a combination of surgery and chemotherapy prolonged survival, compared to surgery alone; however, the chemotherapy-surgery combination did not affect the OS of patients younger than 70 years, in stage T1-2, and/or of black race. Multivariable analysis and RF presented Age, T stage, and N stage were the most important predictors for OS. The novel nomogram had superiority to the TNM staging system with improved C-index and IDI, as well as good consistency and higher clinical benefit. TDs are associated with poor survival from sigmoid colon cancer, and considering TDs can inform the formulation of individual treatment regimens. The nomogram shows satisfactory prediction ability for OS.
10.1038/s41598-022-21331-z
Predictive and Prognostic Assessment Models for Tumor Deposit in Colorectal Cancer Patients With No Distant Metastasis.
Frontiers in oncology
BACKGROUND:More and more evidence indicated that tumor deposit (TD) was significantly associated with local recurrence, distant metastasis (DM), and poor prognosis for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aims to explore the main clinical risk factors for the presence of TD in CRC patients with no DM (CRC-NDM) and the prognostic factors for TD-positive patients after surgery. METHODS:The data of patients with CRC-NDM between 2010 and 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors for TD presence. Fine and Gray's competing-risk model was performed to analyze prognostic factors for TD-positive CRC-NDM patients. A predictive nomogram was constructed using the multivariate logistic regression model. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the calibration were used to evaluate the predictive nomogram. Also, a prognostic nomogram was built based on multivariate competing-risk regression. C-index, the calibration, and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were performed to validate the prognostic model. RESULTS:The predictive nomogram to predict the presence of TD had a C-index of 0.785 and AUC of 0.787 and 0.782 in the training and validation sets, respectively. From the competing-risk analysis, chemotherapy (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.542, < 0.001) can significantly reduce CRC-specific death (CCSD). The prognostic nomogram for the outcome prediction in postoperative CRC-NDM patients with TD had a C-index of 0.727. The 5-year survival of CCSD was 17.16%, 36.20%, and 63.19% in low-, medium-, and high-risk subgroups, respectively (Gray's test, < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:We constructed an easily predictive nomogram in identifying the high-risk TD-positive CRC-NDM patients. Besides, a prognostic nomogram was built to help clinicians identify poor-outcome individuals in postoperative CRC-NDM patients with TD. For the high-risk or medium-risk subgroup, additional chemotherapy may be more advantageous for the TD-positive patients rather than radiotherapy.
10.3389/fonc.2022.809277
Prognostic value of N1c in colorectal cancer: a large population-based study using propensity score matching.
Shen Feng,Hong Xia
International journal of colorectal disease
PURPOSE:We conducted this large population-based study to investigate the prognostic significance of N1c. METHODS:Patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2010, were included in the sample. The primary outcome of interest used in our study was cause-specific survival (CSS). Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to evaluate the prognostic value of N1c. Propensity score matching (PSM) was implemented to reduce the possibility of selection bias using a logistic regression model. RESULTS:A total of 19,991 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were identified from the SEER database. The median follow-up time of the whole cohort was 60 months (0-71 months). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that N1c was associated with significantly higher risk of colorectal cancer-specific mortality compared with N0 (HR = 1.962, 95%CI = 1.642 to 2.343, P < 0.001) and N1a (HR = 0.818, 95%CI = 0.678 to 0.987, P = 0.036); N1c was associated with significantly lower risk of colorectal cancer-specific mortality compared with N2a (HR = 1.296, 95%CI = 1.081 to 1.554, P = 0.005) and N2b (HR = 1.663, 95%CI = 1.391 to 1.989, P < 0.001). Yet the CSS difference between N1b and N1c did not achieve statistical difference (HR = 1.089, 95%CI = 0.909 to 1.304, P = 0.354). CONCLUSIONS:The large population-based and propensity score-matched study with long follow-up time provides the first evidence that CSS difference between N1b and N1c does not achieve a statistical difference.
10.1007/s00384-019-03328-9