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    Cirrhotics with variceal hemorrhage: the importance of the time interval between admission and the start of analysis for survival and rebleeding rates. Burroughs A K,Mezzanotte G,Phillips A,McCormick P A,McIntyre N Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) The importance of variable time of entry for analysis of survival following variceal bleeding has recently been disputed. In a study of 194 cirrhotic patients with bleeding esophageal varices in whom 2-day mortality was 3%, statistically significant differences in both survival and rebleeding rates were obtained by shifting the starting point for analysis of survival by 2 weeks following admission to hospital or by 5 days for the analysis of rebleeding. In addition, the curve of hazard function for death or for failure to control bleeding following admission clearly showed that any change in entry time in a study of variceal bleeding would introduce bias and alter survival or rebleeding rates. Thus, the starting point for analysis following variceal hemorrhage is an important confounding variable when calculating both survival and rebleeding. It should always be taken into account, particularly in clinical trials, which are often performed in centers where patients are referred from other hospitals at different times following bleeding.
    Review article: the relevance of portal pressure and other risk factors in acute gastro-oesophageal variceal bleeding. Dell'era A,Bosch J Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics Gastro-oesophageal variceal bleeding is the last step in a chain of events that starts with an increased portal pressure, and is followed by the formation and progressive dilatation of gastro-oesophageal varices. When the tension of the thin wall of the varices exceeds its elastic limit, the varices rupture and bleed. Wall tension is directly proportional to variceal pressure (which is a function of portal pressure) and variceal radius, and inversely related to the thickness of the variceal wall. The above facts explain why a high portal pressure (usually determined by the hepatic venous pressure gradient, or HVPG) and the presence at endoscopy of large varices with red wheals, red spots or diffuse redness on the varices (signalling a reduced wall thickness) correlate with the risk of bleeding. 10.1111/j.1365-2036.2004.02109.x
    Outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma presenting with variceal bleeding. Lang Brian H,Poon Ronnie T,Fan Sheung T,Wong John The American journal of gastroenterology OBJECTIVE:Variceal bleeding is an important manifestation of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, little has been documented in the literature regarding the outcomes of HCC patients presenting with variceal bleeding. This study evaluated the clinical characteristics, management, and outcomes of this specific group of patients. METHODS:A retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database comprising 2,928 HCC patients managed from January 1989 to December 2002 identified 78 patients who had presented with variceal bleeding. Their clinical outcomes were compared to those patients who did not present with variceal bleeding, and a multivariate analysis was performed to identify prognostic factors for their survival. RESULTS:HCC patients who presented with variceal bleeding had more severe cirrhosis than those who did not, with a significantly higher serum bilirubin level, lower albumin level, lower platelet count, and longer prothrombin time. They had significantly smaller HCCs but more frequent portal vein thrombosis. There was a significant difference in the overall survival between HCC patients who presented with variceal bleeding and those who did not (median 3.5 months vs 7.5 months, p < 0.001). In the variceal bleeding group, by multivariate analysis, treatment with transarterial chemoembolization was the only significant independent prognostic factor for survival (odds ratio 17.16, 95% CI: 2.81-104.91, p= 0.002). CONCLUSIONS:HCC patients who presented with variceal bleeding can be expected to have a significantly worse survival outcome than the general HCC patients. However, transarterial chemoembolization may offer some survival benefit to a selected group of HCC patients presenting with variceal bleeding. 10.1111/j.1572-0241.2004.40336.x
    The factors affecting risk of recurrent variceal bleeding. Lo Gin-Ho,Lai Kwok-Hung Gastroenterology 10.1053/j.gastro.2004.11.032
    Decreasing in-hospital mortality for oesophageal variceal hemorrhage in the USA. Jamal M Mazen,Samarasena Jason B,Hashemzadeh Mehrtash European journal of gastroenterology & hepatology BACKGROUND:To date, no study has analyzed nationwide trends of in-hospital mortality related to oesophageal variceal hemorrhage in the USA. The aim of this study was to analyze trends of in-hospital mortality related to oesophageal variceal bleeding over the past two decades using a large national database. In addition, our aim was to study patient demographics and to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality based on administrative data routinely collected in this population. METHODS:The nationwide inpatient sample database was used from 1988 to 2004. Patients with an International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision, Clinical Modification discharge diagnosis of oesophageal variceal bleeding were included. Patient demographics, hospital, and admission characteristics were collected. t-test and Poisson regression analysis were used to evaluate trends. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between mortality and patient/hospital characteristics. RESULTS:From 1988 to 2004, crude in-hospital mortality decreased from 18 to 11.5%, whereas the age-adjusted in-hospital mortality rate decreased 45.4% from 1289 per 100,000 to 704 per 100,000 (P<0.01). Mortality was consistently higher for males and for African-Americans over the study period. For the 2001 dataset, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that male sex, African-American race, age, large hospital size, urban location, teaching hospitals, and hospitals located in the northeast were independent risk factors for increased mortality. CONCLUSION:The in-hospital mortality of patients with oesophageal variceal bleeding has decreased over the past two decades and is likely due to the advances made in the acute management of variceal bleeding as well as improved resuscitative methods. Male sex, African-American race, age, large hospital size, urban location, teaching hospitals, and hospitals located in the northeast are independent risk factors for increased in-hospital mortality. 10.1097/MEG.0b013e32830280c7
    Higher hospital volume predicts endoscopy but not the in-hospital mortality rate in patients with acute variceal hemorrhage. Ananthakrishnan Ashwin N,McGinley Emily L,Saeian Kia Gastrointestinal endoscopy BACKGROUND:Acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) is an important complication of cirrhosis that carries a high mortality rate. Management of AVH requires early initiation of specialized care that may be more readily available at centers that deal with a high volume of AVH. OBJECTIVE:Our purpose was to examine the relationship between the annual hospitalization volume and the in-hospital mortality rate for AVH. DESIGN:Cross-sectional study from a national representative sample. SETTING:A 20% sample of all nonfederal short-term hospitals from 37 states participating in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample 2004. PATIENTS:A total of 28,817 discharges with AVH identified through appropriate International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes for bleeding esophageal varices. Hospitals were divided into low-, medium-, and high-volume hospitals if they had 1 to 15, 16 to 35, and 36 or more annual discharges related to AVH. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENT:In-hospital mortality rate. RESULTS:On multivariate analysis, there was no significant difference in the mortality rate either for medium- (odds ratio [OR] 0.84; 95% CI, 0.67-1.05) or high-volume hospitals (OR 1.06; 95% CI, 0.82-1.37). However, patients both at medium- (OR 1.27; 95% CI, 1.02-1.58) and high-volume hospitals (OR 1.40; 95% CI, 1.07-1.84) were more likely to undergo endoscopy for AVH. Endoscopic intervention for control of variceal hemorrhage was significantly more common in medium- (OR 1.20) and high- (OR 1.33) volume hospitals. Patients at medium- (OR 3.10; 95% CI, 2.09-4.60) and high-volume hospitals (OR 4.12; 95% CI, 2.52-6.75) were also more likely to undergo transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). CONCLUSION:Higher hospital volume is associated with greater rates of endoscopy, endoscopic intervention, and higher utilization of TIPS in the management of AVH. 10.1016/j.gie.2008.04.065
    Independent factors associated with recurrent bleeding in cirrhotic patients with esophageal variceal hemorrhage. Lee Shou-Wu,Lee Teng-Yu,Chang Chi-Sen Digestive diseases and sciences UNLABELLED:BACKGROUND, PURPOSE, AND METHODS: Cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal (EV) hemorrhage are characterized by high mortality and rebleeding rates. This study was conducted to investigate the independent indicators of recurrent hemorrhage in cirrhotic patients within 6 weeks after cessation of initial EV bleeding. Ninety-seven consecutive cirrhotic patients with EV bleeding, but without evidence of infection, who were admitted to our hospital between December 2005 and February 2008 were retrospectively analyzed. Among these patients, 14 patients with recurrent hemorrhage and 83 without rebleeding within 6 weeks were enrolled as the rebleeding group and non-rebleeding group, respectively. RESULTS:The incidence of infection and number of EV ligations were significantly higher in the rebleeding group than in the non-rebleeding group (P=0.043 and 0.042, respectively). Other parameters, such as age, gender, etiology and severity of liver cirrhosis, ascites, spleen diameter, laboratory data, hepatocellular carcinoma, portal vein thrombosis, peptic ulcer disease, blood pressure, requirements of blood transfusion and differential vasoactive mediations, had no significant influence on the incidence of rebleeding. The ratio of mortality (7/14 vs. 3/83) was significantly higher in the rebleeding group (P=0.0002), and these cases were caused by rebleeding and sepsis. The frequency of rebleeding and mortality mostly occurred within the first 2 weeks after admission. CONCLUSION:This study provides evidence that early recurrent hemorrhage after initial EV bleeding in cirrhotic patients is significantly associated with higher incidence of bacterial infection and more numbers of EV ligations due to extensive surface area of mucosal injury and post-banding ulcers. Prevention of rebleeding and infection plays a major role in reducing the rate of mortality in cirrhotic patients with EV bleeding. 10.1007/s10620-008-0454-0
    Noninvasive predictors of large varices in patients hospitalized with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage. Ismail Faisal Wasim,Shah Hasnain A,Hamid Saeed,Abbas Zaigham,Abid Shahab,Mumtaz Khalid,Jafri Wasim Hepatology international AIM:To identify noninvasive factors predicting the presence of large varices (LV) in patients hospitalized with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage (GEVH). METHODS:Case records of patients admitted with GEVH between January 1998 and June 2005 were retrospectively analyzed. Relevant clinical parameters assessed included Child-Pugh class, ascites (clinical and/or on ultrasound), portosystemic encephalopathy (PSE), splenomegaly (clinical and/or on ultrasound), and hemodynamic instability. The laboratory parameters assessed were hemoglobin level, platelet count, prothrombin time, serum bilirubin, and albumin. The ultrasonographic characteristics noted were splenic size, presence of splenic varices, and portal vein diameter. RESULTS:A total of 420 patients (264 men) presented with GEVH during the study period. The mean age, gender distribution, and presence of cirrhosis were similar in the two groups. Liver cirrhosis with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh class C, presence of clinically detectable ascites, grade 3-4 PSE, detectable splenomegaly, previous history of GEVH, hemodynamic instability and platelet count <91,000 were more common in the LV group. The frequency of radiologically detected ascites, splenomegaly, and portal vein diameter were similar in both groups. On multivariate analysis, the independent predictors for the presence of LV were cirrhosis with HCC, clinically detectable splenomegaly, hemodynamic instability, a previous history of GEVH, platelet count <91,000, and splenic size >/=158 mm. CONCLUSION:Cirrhosis with HCC, clinical splenomegaly, hemodynamic instability, a previous history of GEVH, thrombocytopenia (i.e., platelet count <91,000), and splenic size >/=158 mm are independent noninvasive predictors of large varices in patients hospitalized with gastroesophageal variceal hemorrhage. 10.1007/s12072-007-9034-1
    Delayed endoscopy as a risk factor for in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage. Hsu Yao-Chun,Chung Chen-Shuan,Tseng Cheng-Hao,Lin Tzu-Ling,Liou Jyh-Ming,Wu Ming-Shiang,Hu Fu-Chang,Wang Hsiu-Po Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Risk factors for mortality in acute variceal hemorrhage remain incompletely understood. Whether endoscopy timing is associated with risk of mortality has not been investigated. We aimed to investigate risk factors for in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage, with emphasis on endoscopy timing. METHODS:Three hundred and eleven (73% male and 23% female) consecutive cirrhotic patients presenting with acute variceal hemorrhage from July 2004 to July 2007 were investigated. The univariate association of endoscopy timing as the predictor for in-hospital mortality was examined. Independent risk factors for mortality were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis consisting of clinical, laboratory and endoscopic parameters. RESULTS:Twenty-five (8.04%) patients died within admission. By plotting the receiver operating curve of endoscopy timing for mortality, we selected 15 h as the optimal cut-off point to define delayed endoscopy. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that independent risk factors predictive for in-hospital mortality included delayed endoscopy performed 15 h after admission (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-10.39), every point increment of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (aOR = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07-1.25), failure of the first endoscopy (aOR = 4.36; 95% CI, 1.54-12.30) and hematemesis as the chief complaint (compared with melena, aOR = 8.66; 95% CI, 1.06-70.94). CONCLUSION:Delayed endoscopy for more than 15 h, high MELD score, failure of the first endoscopy and hematemesis are independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage. 10.1111/j.1440-1746.2009.05903.x
    Predicting early mortality after acute variceal hemorrhage based on classification and regression tree analysis. Augustin Salvador,Muntaner Laura,Altamirano José T,González Antonio,Saperas Esteban,Dot Joan,Abu-Suboh Monder,Armengol Josep R,Malagelada Joan R,Esteban Rafael,Guardia Jaime,Genescà Joan Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association BACKGROUND & AIMS:Available prognostic models for mortality after an acute variceal hemorrhage have limitations that restrict their clinical value. We assessed the performance of a novel prognostic approach based on classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. METHODS:Logistic regression (LR) and CART analyses were performed to identify prognostic models for mortality at 6 weeks in a single-center cohort of 267 consecutive patients with acute variceal bleeding. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to assess the performance of the models. Prognostic models were fitted and validated by split-sample technique (training set, 164 patients, 2001-2005; test set, 103 patients, 2006-2008). RESULTS:After 6 weeks, 21% of patients experienced rebleeding and 24% died. The best LR model was based on Child-Pugh score, creatinine level, bacterial infection, and hepatocellular carcinoma. CART analysis provided a simple algorithm based on the combined use of just 3 variables (Child-Pugh score, creatinine level, and bacterial infection), allowing accurate early discrimination of 3 distinct prognostic subgroups with 8% (low risk), 17% (intermediate), and 50% to 73% (high) mortality. Its accuracy was similar to the LR model (area under the ROC curves, 0.81 vs 0.84; P = .17) and better than that of Child-Pugh (0.75; P = .05) and model for end-stage liver disease (0.74; P = .05). The prognostic accuracy of both LR and CART models was validated in the test set (area under the ROC curve values, 0.81 and 0.83, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:A simple CART algorithm based on Child-Pugh score, creatinine level, and infection allowed an accurate predictive assessment of 6-week mortality after acute variceal bleeding. 10.1016/j.cgh.2009.08.011
    Prediction of mortality after emergent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement: use of APACHE II, Child-Pugh and MELD scores in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage. Tzeng Wen-Sheng,Wu Reng-Hong,Lin Ching-Yih,Chen Jyh-Jou,Sheu Ming-Juen,Koay Lok-Beng,Lee Chuan Korean journal of radiology OBJECTIVE:This study was designed to determine if existing methods of grading liver function that have been developed in non-Asian patients with cirrhosis can be used to predict mortality in Asian patients treated for refractory variceal hemorrhage by the use of the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Data for 107 consecutive patients who underwent an emergency TIPS procedure were retrospectively analyzed. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II), Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were calculated. Survival analyses were performed to evaluate the ability of the various models to predict 30-day, 60-day and 360-day mortality. The ability of stratified APACHE II, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores to predict survival was assessed by the use of Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test. RESULTS:No patient died during the TIPS procedure, but 82 patients died during the follow-up period. Thirty patients died within 30 days after the TIPS procedure; 37 patients died within 60 days and 53 patients died within 360 days. Univariate analysis indicated that hepatorenal syndrome, use of inotropic agents and mechanical ventilation were associated with elevated 30-day mortality (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that a Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 predicted increased risk of death at 30, 60 and 360 days (p < 0.05). APACHE II scores could only predict mortality at 360 days (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION:A Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 are predictive of mortality in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage treated with the TIPS procedure. An APACHE II score is not predictive of early mortality in this patient population. 10.3348/kjr.2009.10.5.481
    Compliance with practice guidelines and risk of a first esophageal variceal hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis. Moodley Jayavani,Lopez Rocio,Carey William Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association BACKGROUND & AIMS:Esophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH) is a serious complication of cirrhosis, with 20% mortality per episode. The 2007 American Association for the Study of Liver Disease and American College of Gastroenterology practice guidelines regarding esophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis recommend screening and intervention to prevent EVH. We assessed practice guideline compliance and its impact on the rate of first EVH. METHODS:An institutional review board-approved retrospective chart review was conducted on a random sample of adult patients newly evaluated for cirrhosis at the Cleveland Clinic from 2003 to 2006 (n = 179). Exclusion criteria were a previous diagnosis of esophageal varices or EVH and/or treatment with beta-adrenergic antagonists. Patients were followed for 23 months (range, 9-38 months). Conformity with practice guidelines and subsequent bleeding rates were determined. Observed bleeding rates were compared to the North Italian Endoscopy Club (NIEC) model. RESULTS:Of the patients, 94% had a screening endoscopy, 80% within 6 months of the initial visit. Varices were present in 50% of the patients; 68% of all patients screened and 91% with large varices received a practice guideline-recommended treatment. Twelve patients (7%) had an episode of EVH; 82% of subjects without bleeding had their screening endoscopy within 6 months versus 50% of those with bleeding (P = .016). Actuarial likelihood of bleeding at 2 years was 13% versus 27% predicted by the NIEC model (P < .05). CONCLUSION:Compliance with practice guideline recommendations is associated with reduction in first EVH in the first 2 years. 10.1016/j.cgh.2010.02.022
    Rebleeding rates following TIPS for variceal hemorrhage in the Viatorr era: TIPS alone versus TIPS with variceal embolization. Gaba Ron C,Bui James T,Cotler Scott J,Kallwitz Eric R,Mengin Olga T,Martinez Brandon K,Berkes Jaime L,Carrillo Tami C,Knuttinen M Grace,Owens Charles A Hepatology international PURPOSE:To compare rebleeding rates following treatment of variceal hemorrhage with TIPS alone versus TIPS with variceal embolization in the covered stent-graft era. METHODS:In this retrospective study, 52 patients (M:F 29:23, median age 52 years) with hepatic cirrhosis and variceal hemorrhage underwent TIPS insertion between 2003 and 2008. Median Child-Pugh and MELD scores were 8.5 and 13.5. Generally, 10-mm diameter TIPS were created using covered stent-grafts (Viatorr; W.L. Gore and Associates, Flagstaff, AZ). A total of 37 patients underwent TIPS alone, while 15 patients underwent TIPS with variceal embolization. The rates of rebleeding and survival were compared. RESULTS:All TIPS were technically successful. Median portosystemic pressure gradient reductions were 13 versus 11 mmHg in the embolization and non-embolization groups. There were no statistically significant differences in Child-Pugh and MELD score, or portosystemic pressure gradients between each group. A trend toward increased rebleeding was present in the non-embolization group, where 8/37 (21.6%) patients rebled while 1/15 (6.7%) patients in the TIPS with embolization group rebled (P = 0.159) during median follow-up periods of 199 and 252 days (P = 0.374). Rebleeding approached statistical significance among patients with acute hemorrhage, where 8/32 (25%) versus 0/14 (0%) rebled in the non-embolization and embolization groups (P = 0.055). A trend toward increased bleeding-related mortality was seen in the non-embolization group (P = 0.120). CONCLUSIONS:TIPS alone showed a high incidence of rebleeding in this series, whereas TIPS with variceal embolization resulted in reduced recurrent hemorrhage. The efficacy of embolization during TIPS performed for variceal hemorrhage versus TIPS alone should be further compared with larger prospective randomized trials. 10.1007/s12072-010-9206-2
    MELD score can predict early mortality in patients with rebleeding after band ligation for variceal bleeding. Chen Wei-Ting,Lin Chun-Yen,Sheen I-Shyan,Huang Chang-Wen,Lin Tsung-Nan,Lin Chun-Jung,Jeng Wen-Juei,Huang Chien-Hao,Ho Yu-Pin,Chiu Cheng-Tang World journal of gastroenterology AIM:To investigate the outcomes, as well as risk factors for 6-wk mortality, in patients with early rebleeding after endoscopic variceal band ligation (EVL) for esophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH). METHODS:Among 817 EVL procedures performed for EVH between January 2007 and December 2008, 128 patients with early rebleeding, defined as rebleeding within 6 wk after EVL, were enrolled for analysis. RESULT:The rate of early rebleeding after EVL for acute EVH was 15.6% (128/817). The 5-d, 6-wk, 3-mo, and 6-mo mortality rates were 7.8%, 38.3%, 55.5%, and 58.6%, respectively, in these early rebleeding patients. The use of beta-blockers, occurrence of hypovolemic shock, and higher model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score at the time of rebleeding were independent predictors for 6-wk mortality. A cut-off value of 21.5 for the MELD score was found with an area under ROC curve of 0.862 (P < 0.001). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 77.6%, 81%, 71.7%, and 85.3%, respectively. As for the 6-mo survival rate, patients with a MELD score ≥ 21.5 had a significantly lower survival rate than patients with a MELD score < 21.5 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION:This study demonstrated that the MELD score is an easy and powerful predictor for 6-wk mortality and outcomes of patients with early rebleeding after EVL for EVH. 10.3748/wjg.v17.i16.2120
    Effect of Helicobacter pylori infection on esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Sakamoto Yoshihiro,Oho Kazuhiko,Toyonaga Atsushi,Kumamoto Masafumi,Haruta Tsuyoshi,Inoue Hiroto,Emori Keigo,Tsuruta Osamu,Sata Michio Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Bleeding from esophageal and gastric varices is a fatal event in patients with liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. However, the effects of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection on esophagogastric variceal bleeding are not known. The present study was aimed to elucidate the role of H. pylori infection in esophagogastric variceal bleeding. METHODS:The subjects were 196 cirrhotic patients who were admitted to the Kurume University Hospital to treat their esophagogastric varices consisted of 95 with acute bleeding and 101 with nonbleeding but high risk of bleeding. For the diagnosis of H. pylori infection, a (13) C-urea breath test was used, and serum pepsinogen (PG) I and II levels and the PG I/II ratio were also measured. RESULTS:Esophagogastric variceal bleeding was seen in 34.9% (n = 30) of the H. pylori-infected patients (n = 86) and in 59.1% (n = 65) of the noninfected patients (n = 110) (P < 0.0007). There was no significant difference in the infection rate between the bleeding sites of the esophagus and the stomach. The serum PG I and II levels and the PG I/II ratio were 65.6 ng/dL, 14.7 ng/dL, and 4.4, respectively, for the bleeding patients (n = 95), and 43.7 ng/dL, 17.7 ng/dL, and 3.1 for the nonbleeding patients (n = 101). Thus, the nonbleeding patients had significantly higher rate of H. pylori infection and lower acid secretion than bleeding patients (0.001). In addition, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed a significant negative association between H. pylori infection and esophagogastric variceal bleeding. CONCLUSIONS:These results suggest that H. pylori infection has a protective effect against esophagogastric variceal bleeding through the induction of gastric mucosal atrophy and concomitant hypoacidity. 10.1111/jgh.12221
    Predictors of in-hospital mortality after acute variceal bleeding in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and concurrent main portal vein thrombosis. Han Ming-Lun,Chen Chieh-Chang,Kuo Shih-Hao,Hsu Wen-Feng,Liou Jyh-Ming,Wu Ming-Shiang,Wang Hsiu-Po Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology BACKGROUND AND AIM:Risk factors for acute variceal bleeding in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and concurrent main portal vein thrombosis (PVT) remain unclear. We aimed to determine risk factors of in-hospital mortality after acute variceal bleeding for HCC patients with concurrent main PVT. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective analysis of 102 HCC patients (83% men and 17% women) with concurrent main PVT and acute variceal bleeding. All patients received emergent endoscopy to define the bleeding source. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis consisting of clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic parameters was performed to identify predictive factors for intrahospital mortality. RESULTS:Twenty-eight (27.5%) patients died within admission. The median survival of all patients was 56 days. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses revealed Child-Pugh score (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.29 for each point; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11-1.50), active bleeding on index endoscopy (aHR: 7.50; 95% CI: 3.05-18.4), esophageal varices as the bleeder (compared with gastric varices, aHR: 14.3; 95% CI: 3.12-66.1), failure to control bleeding (aHR: 38.0; 95% CI: 7.44-194), and serum creatinine (aHR: 1.28 for each increase of 1 mg/dL; 95% CI: 1.09-1.50) independently predicted in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS:Hepatic reserve, active bleeding on index endoscopy, failure to control bleeding, esophageal varices as the bleeder when compared with gastric varices, and renal function were independent predictive factors for in-hospital mortality in HCC patients with acute variceal bleeding and concurrent main PVT. 10.1111/jgh.12341
    Antiviral therapy delays esophageal variceal bleeding in hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis. Li Chang-Zheng,Cheng Liu-Fang,Li Qing-Shan,Wang Zhi-Qiang,Yan Jun-Hong World journal of gastroenterology AIM:To investigate the effect of antiviral therapy with nucleoside analogs in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis and esophageal varices. METHODS:Eligible patients with HBV-related cirrhosis and esophageal varices who consulted two tertiary hospitals in Beijing, China, the Chinese Second Artillery General Hospital and Chinese PLA General Hospital, were enrolled in the study from January 2005 to December 2009. Of 117 patients, 79 received treatment with different nucleoside analogs and 38 served as controls. Bleeding rate, change in variceal grade and non-bleeding duration were analyzed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify factors related to esophageal variceal bleeding. RESULTS:The bleeding rate was decreased in the antiviral group compared to the control group (29.1% vs 65.8%, P < 0.001). Antiviral therapy was an independent factor related to esophageal bleeding in multivariate analysis (HR = 11.3, P < 0.001). The mean increase in variceal grade per year was lower in the antiviral group (1.0 ± 1.3 vs 1.7 ± 1.2, P = 0.003). Non-bleeding duration in the antiviral group was prolonged in the Kaplan-Meier model. Viral load rebound was observed in 3 cases in the lamivudine group and in 1 case in the adefovir group, all of whom experienced bleeding. Entecavir and adefovir resulted in lower bleeding rates (17.2% and 28.6%, respectively) than the control (P < 0.001 and P = 0.006, respectively), whereas lamivudine (53.3%) did not (P = 0.531). CONCLUSION:Antiviral therapy delays the progression of esophageal varices and reduces bleeding risk in HBV-related cirrhosis, however, high-resistance agents tend to be ineffective for long-term treatment. 10.3748/wjg.v19.i40.6849
    Liver: Can we identify failure to control acute variceal bleeding? Hernández-Gea Virginia,García-Pagan Juan Carlos Nature reviews. Gastroenterology & hepatology 10.1038/nrgastro.2014.178
    Risk of Bacterial Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Hemorrhage, Based on Child-Pugh Class, and Effects of Antibiotics. Tandon Puneeta,Abraldes Juan G,Keough Adam,Bastiampillai Ravin,Jayakumar Saumya,Carbonneau Michelle,Wong Eric,Kao Dina,Bain Vince G,Ma Mang Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association BACKGROUND & AIMS:Antibiotics frequently are overused and are associated with serious adverse events in patients with cirrhosis. However, these drugs are recommended for all patients presenting with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH). We investigated whether patients should be stratified for antibiotic prophylaxis based on Child-Pugh scores, to estimate risks of bacterial infection, rebleeding, and mortality, and whether antibiotics have equal effects on patients of all Child-Pugh classes. We performed a sensitivity analysis using model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores. METHODS:In a retrospective study, we analyzed data from 381 adult patients with cirrhosis and AVH (70% men; mean age, 56 y), admitted from 2000 through 2009 to 2 tertiary care hospitals in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. We excluded patients with bacterial infection on the day of AVH. The association between antibiotic prophylaxis and outcomes was adjusted by liver disease severity and by a propensity score. RESULTS:The patients included in the study had mean MELD scores of 16, and 54% received antibiotic prophylaxis. Overall, antibiotic therapy was associated with lower risks of infection (adjusted odds ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-0.74) and mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.31-1.29). Among patients categorized as Child-Pugh class A given antibiotics, only 2% developed infections and the mortality rate was 0.4%. Among patients categorized as Child-Pugh class B given antibiotics, 6% developed infections, compared with 14% of patients who did not receive antibiotics; antibiotics did not affect mortality. Administration of antibiotics to patients categorized as Child-Pugh class C reduced infections and mortality by approximately 50%, compared with patients who did not receive antibiotics. MELD scores were not as useful as Child-Pugh class in identifying patients at risk for infection. CONCLUSIONS:Based on a retrospective analysis of patients with cirrhosis and AVH, those categorized as Child-Pugh class A had lower rates of bacterial infection and lower mortality rates in the absence of antibiotic prophylaxis than patients categorized as classes B or C. The recommendation for routine antibiotic prophylaxis for this subgroup requires further evaluation. 10.1016/j.cgh.2014.11.019
    Risk factors for early rebleeding and mortality in acute variceal hemorrhage. Zhao Jing-Run,Wang Guang-Chuan,Hu Jin-Hua,Zhang Chun-Qing World journal of gastroenterology AIM:To investigate the risk factors for 6-wk rebleeding and mortality in acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) patients treated by percutaneous transhepatic variceal embolization (PTVE). METHODS:A retrospective cohort study of AVH patients who had undergone PTVE treatment was conducted between January 2010 and December 2012. Demographic information, medical histories, physical examination findings, and laboratory test results were collected. The PTVE procedure was performed as a rescue therapy for patients who failed endoscopic and pharmacologic treatment. Survival analysis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. The multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox regression test to identify independent risk factors for rebleeding and mortality. RESULTS:One hundred and one patients were included; 71 were males and the average age was 51 years. Twenty-one patients rebled within 6 wk. Patients with high-risk stigmata, PTVE with trunk obliteration, and a hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥ 20 mmHg were at increased risk for rebleeding (OR = 5.279, 95%CI: 2.782-38.454, P = 0.003; OR = 4.309, 95%CI: = 2.144-11.793, P < 0.001; and OR = 1.534, 95%CI: 1.062-2.216, P = 0.022, respectively). Thirteen patients died within 6 wk. A model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 18 and an HVPG ≥ 20 mmHg were associated with 6-wk mortality (OR = 2.162, 95%CI: 1.145-4.084, P = 0.017 and OR = 1.423, 95%CI: 1.222-1.657, P < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION:MELD score and HVPG in combination allow for early identification of patients with AVH who are at substantially increased risk of death over the short term. 10.3748/wjg.v20.i47.17941
    Prevention of Rebleeding From Esophageal Varices in Patients With Cirrhosis Receiving Small-Diameter Stents Versus Hemodynamically Controlled Medical Therapy. Sauerbruch Tilman,Mengel Martin,Dollinger Matthias,Zipprich Alexander,Rössle Martin,Panther Elisabeth,Wiest Reiner,Caca Karel,Hoffmeister Albrecht,Lutz Holger,Schoo Rüdiger,Lorenzen Henning,Trebicka Jonel,Appenrodt Beate,Schepke Michael,Fimmers Rolf, Gastroenterology BACKGROUND & AIMS:Patients with cirrhosis and variceal hemorrhage have a high risk of rebleeding. We performed a prospective randomized trial to compare the prevention of rebleeding in patients given a small-diameter covered stent vs those given hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG)-based medical therapy prophylaxis. METHODS:We performed an open-label study of patients with cirrhosis (92% Child class A or B, 70% alcoholic) treated at 10 medical centers in Germany. Patients were assigned randomly more than 5 days after variceal hemorrhage to groups given a small covered transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPS) (8 mm; n = 90), or medical reduction of portal pressure (propranolol and isosorbide-5-mononitrate; n = 95). HVPG was determined at the time patients were assigned to groups (baseline) and 2 weeks later. In the medical group, patients with an adequate reduction in HVPG (responders) remained on the drugs whereas nonresponders underwent only variceal band ligation. The study was closed 10 months after the last patient was assigned to a group. The primary end point was variceal rebleeding. Survival, safety (adverse events), and quality of life (based on the Short Form-36 health survey) were secondary outcome measures. RESULTS:A significantly smaller proportion of patients in the TIPS group had rebleeding within 2 years (7%) than in the medical group (26%) (P = .002). A slightly higher proportion of patients in the TIPS group experienced adverse events, including encephalopathy (18% vs 8% for medical treatment; P = .05). Rebleeding occurred in 6 of 23 patients (26%) receiving medical treatment before hemodynamic control was possible. Per-protocol analysis showed that rebleeding occurred in a smaller proportion of the 32 responders (18%) than in nonresponders who received variceal band ligation (31%) (P = .06). Fifteen patients from the medical group (16%) underwent TIPS placement during follow-up evaluation, mainly for refractory ascites. Survival time and quality of life did not differ between both randomized groups. CONCLUSIONS:Placement of a small-diameter, covered TIPS was straightforward and prevented variceal rebleeding in patients with Child A or B cirrhosis more effectively than drugs, which often required step-by-step therapy. However, TIPS did not increase survival time or quality of life and produced slightly more adverse events. Clinical Trial no: ISRCTN 16334693. 10.1053/j.gastro.2015.05.011
    Varices and Variceal Hemorrhage in Cirrhosis: A New View of an Old Problem. Garcia-Tsao Guadalupe,Bosch Jaime Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association The management of portal hypertension in cirrhosis has evolved over time, leading to improvements in the care and survival of patients with varices and variceal hemorrhage, particularly in patients who achieve a significant reduction in portal pressure. In addition to better treatment strategies and improved therapeutic options, the issue of risk stratification has become essential to identify different patient subpopulations that require a different treatment. We now recognize that the management of varices and variceal hemorrhage must be taken in the context of other complications of cirrhosis (ascites, encephalopathy, jaundice) and that the goals of therapy should be based on the presence of such complications. Evolving knowledge of the predominant pathophysiological mechanisms at each of the stages of cirrhosis also has evolved and will continue to lead to improvements in therapy. This review focuses on the management of varices and variceal hemorrhage with respect to refinements in the risk stratification of patients with cirrhosis. 10.1016/j.cgh.2015.07.012
    The international normalized ratio does not reflect bleeding risk in esophageal variceal hemorrhage. Hshieh Tammy T,Kaung Aung,Hussain Syed,Curry Michael P,Sundaram Vinay Saudi journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Saudi Gastroenterology Association BACKGROUND/AIMS:The international normalized ratio (INR) has not been validated as a predictor of bleeding risk in cirrhotics. The aim of this study was to determine whether elevation in the INR correlated with risk of esophageal variceal hemorrhage and whether correction of the INR prior to endoscopic therapy affects failure to control bleeding. PATIENTS AND METHODS:Patient records were retrospectively reviewed from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. Cases were cirrhotics admitted to the hospital due to bleeding esophageal varices. Controls were cirrhotics with a history of non-bleeding esophageal varices admitted with ascites or encephalopathy. All variceal bleeders were treated with octreotide, antibiotics, and band ligation. Failure to control bleeding was defined according to the Baveno V criteria. RESULTS:We analyzed 74 cases and 74 controls. The mean INR at presentation was lower in those with bleeding varices compared to non-bleeders (1.61 vs 1.74, P = 0.03). Those with bleeding varices had higher serum sodium (136.1 vs 133.8, P = 0.02), lower hemoglobin (9.59 vs 11.0, P < 0.001), and lower total bilirubin (2.47 vs 5.50, P < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression showed total bilirubin to inversely correlate with bleeding (OR = 0.74). Bleeders received a mean of 1.14 units of fresh frozen plasma (FFP) prior to endoscopy (range 0-11 units). Of the 14 patients (20%) with failure to control bleeding, median INR (1.8 vs 1.5, P = 0.02) and median units of FFP transfused (2 vs 0, P = 0.01) were higher than those with hemostasis after the initial endoscopy. CONCLUSIONS:The INR reflects liver dysfunction, not bleeding risk. Correction of INR with FFP has little effect on hemostasis. 10.4103/1319-3767.161646
    Similar rebleeding rate in 3-day and 7-day intravenous ceftriaxone prophylaxis for patients with acute variceal bleeding. Lee Tzong-Hsi,Huang Chung-Tsui,Lin Chien-Chu,Chung Chen-Shuan,Lin Cheng-Kuan,Tsai Kuang-Chau Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi BACKGROUND/PURPOSE:Although prophylactic antibiotics have been recommended for cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding, the duration of its use remains an inconclusive issue. We designed this study to investigate the duration of antibiotic prophylaxis for cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding. METHODS:We enrolled those patients suffering from acute esophageal variceal bleeding and receiving band ligation. They were randomly allocated to two groups to receive prophylactic antibiotics; Group I: receiving intravenous ceftriaxone 500 mg every 12 hours for 3 days, and Group II: same regimen for 7 days. We used rebleeding rate within 14 days as the primary end point and also evaluated the survival rate within 28 days and the amount of transfusion during admission. RESULTS:There were 38 patients in Group I and 33 patients in Group II that completed the study course for analysis. Overall, there was no significant difference in the baseline characteristics between these two groups. There were three patients both in Group I and Group II who developed rebleeding within 14 days (8% vs. 9%, p > 0.99). There was also no difference between Group I and Group II in transfusion amount (2.71 ± 2.84 units vs. 3.18 ± 4.07, p = 0.839) and survival rate in 28 days (100 vs. 97%, p = 0.465). CONCLUSION:Our small scale study demonstrated that there was no difference in the rebleeding rate between 3-day and 7-day ceftriaxone prophylaxis for cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding. There was also no difference in 28 day survival rate between these two groups. 10.1016/j.jfma.2016.01.006
    Recurrence and prognosis of patients emergently hospitalized for acute esophageal variceal bleeding: A long-term cohort study. Cho Hourin,Nagata Naoyoshi,Shimbo Takuro,Sakurai Toshiyuki,Sekine Katsunori,Okubo Hidetaka,Imbe Koh,Watanabe Kazuhiro,Mikami Shintaro,Yokoi Chizu,Kobayakawa Masao,Mizokami Masashi,Yanase Mikio,Akiyama Junichi,Uemura Naomi Hepatology research : the official journal of the Japan Society of Hepatology AIM:To elucidate the rates of recurrence and mortality in acute esophageal variceal bleeding and the associated risk factors. METHODS:A cohort of 174 patients emergently hospitalized for esophageal variceal bleeding was analyzed. All patients underwent endoscopic variceal ligation within 3 h of arrival. Comorbidities, vital signs, drug use, laboratory data, etiology, endoscopic findings, transfusion requirement, and follow-up endoscopy were assessed. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR). RESULTS:Rebleeding was identified in 49 patients with a mean follow-up of 18 months. The cumulative rebleeding rate at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years was 10.2%, 30.0%, and 51.0%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for rebleeding were child-Pugh class C (HR 1.94; P = 0.027), alcoholic liver cirrhosis (HR 2.32; P = 0.01), and no follow-up endoscopy (HR 13.3; P < 0.001). During the overall mean follow-up of 22 months, 69 patients died (17 due to bleeding), and the cumulative mortality rate at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years was 12.2%, 26.6%, and 63.0%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for mortality were child-Pugh class C (HR 2.91; P < 0.001), coexistence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 1.92; P = 0.013), and no follow-up endoscopy (HR 23.6; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION:This study revealed more than 50% cumulative rebleeding and mortality in the 5-year period after endoscopic variceal ligation for esophageal variceal bleeding in an emergency setting. Child-Pugh C, alcoholic liver cirrhosis, and no follow-up endoscopy increased the risk of rebleeding; Child-Pugh C, coexistence of hepatocellular carcinoma, and no follow-up endoscopy increased the risk of mortality. 10.1111/hepr.12692
    Glasgow Blatchford, pre-endoscopic Rockall and AIMS65 scores show no difference in predicting rebleeding rate and mortality in variceal bleeding. Budimir Ivan,Gradišer Marina,Nikolić Marko,Baršić Neven,Ljubičić Neven,Kralj Dominik,Budimir Ivan Scandinavian journal of gastroenterology OBJECTIVE:To compare the performance of the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), pre-endoscopic Rockall score (PRS) and AIMS65 score in predicting specific clinical endpoints following variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH). MATERIAL AND METHODS:Between January 2008 and December 2013, we retrospectively analyzed 225 consecutive hospitalized patients managed for endoscopically confirmed UGIH. RESULTS:A total of 225 patients (mean age 61.3 years), mostly diagnosed with alcoholic cirrhosis (195/86.7%), presented with variceal UGIH during the study period. Rebleeding occurred in 22 (9.8%) patients and 30-day mortality was 39 (17.3%). Initial hemostasis was achieved with N-butyl cyanoacrylate (151/79.1%) and endoscopic variceal ligation (40/20.9%), while secondary rebleeding prophylaxis in 110 (48.9%) patients was accomplished using endoscopic variceal ligation (92%). The majority of patients died from the underlying disease, while 12 (30.8%) died from bleeding. Median hospital stay was 6 (1-35) days. There was no statistically significant difference among AIMS65, GBS and PRS in predicting mortality (AUROC 0.70 vs. 0.64 vs. 0.66) or rebleeding rates (AUROC 0.74 vs. 0.60 vs. 0.67). The GBS was superior in predicting the need for blood transfusion compared to AIMS65 score (AUROC 0.75 vs. 0.61, p = 0.01) and PRS (AUROC 0.75 vs. 0.58, p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS:The AIMS65, GBS and PRS scores are comparable but not useful for predicting outcome in patients with variceal UGIH because of poor discriminative ability. The GBS is superior in predicting the need for transfusion compared to AIMS65 score and PRS. 10.1080/00365521.2016.1200138
    Variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients: What is the best prognostic score? Mohammad Asmaa N,Morsy Khairy H,Ali Moustafa A The Turkish journal of gastroenterology : the official journal of Turkish Society of Gastroenterology BACKGROUND/AIMS:To find the most accurate, suitable, and applicable scoring system for the prediction of outcome in cirrhotic patients with bleeding varices. MATERIALS AND METHODS:A prospective study was conducted comprising 120 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding who were admitted to Tropical Medicine and Gastroenterology Department in Sohag University Hospital, over a 1-year period (1/2015 to 1/2016). The clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic parameters were studied. Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification score, Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, and AIMS65 score were calculated for all patients. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for all the measured parameters and scores. RESULTS:Of the 120 patients (92 male) admitted during the study period, eight patients (6.67%) died in the hospital. Advanced age, the presence of encephalopathy, rebleeding, and higher serum bilirubin were independent factors associated with higher hospital mortality. The largest area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) was obtained for the AIMS65 score and SOFA score, followed by the MELD score and APACHEII score, then CTP score, all of which achieved very good performance (AUROC>0.8). AIMS65 score showed the best sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values. Although the AIMS65 score was not significantly different from the MELD, SOFA, and APACHEII scores, it was the optimum among them in terms of the prediction of mortality. CONCLUSION:AIMS65 score is the best simple and applicable scoring system for independently predicting mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. 10.5152/tjg.2016.16250
    Liver stiffness predicts variceal bleeding in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with compensated cirrhosis. Merchante Nicolás,Rivero-Juárez Antonio,Téllez Francisco,Merino Dolores,Ríos-Villegas Maria José,Ojeda-Burgos Guillermo,Omar Mohamed,Macías Juan,Rivero Antonio,Pérez-Pérez Monserrat,Raffo Miguel,López-Montesinos Inmaculada,Márquez-Solero Manuel,Gómez-Vidal Maria Amparo,Pineda Juan A, AIDS (London, England) BACKGROUND:A liver stiffness below 21 kPa has a high negative predictive value to exclude the presence of esophageal varices at risk of bleeding in HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected patients. Consequently, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE) for the screening of esophageal varices could be avoided in these patients. However, this strategy has not been widely accepted due to concerns about its safety. OBJECTIVE:To assess the ability of liver stiffness to predict the risk of portal hypertensive gastrointestinal bleeding (PHGB) in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS:Prospective study of 446 HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with a new diagnosis of cirrhosis and no previous decompensation. All patients underwent a UGE for the screening of esophageal varices at entry in the cohort before November 2009. From this date, UGE was not recommended in patients with liver stiffness below 21 kPa. The time from diagnosis of cirrhosis to the emergence of PHGB was evaluated. RESULTS:After a median (quartile1-quartile3) follow-up of 49 (25-68) months, 15 (3.4%, 95% confidence interval 1.7-5%) patients developed a first PHGB episode. In all cases, baseline liver stiffness was at least 21 kPa. Thus, the negative predictive value of a liver stiffness below 21 kPa to predict PHGB during follow-up was 100%. At the time of the bleeding episode, liver stiffness was above this threshold in all patients. CONCLUSIONS:Liver stiffness identifies HIV/HCV-coinfected patients with compensated cirrhosis with a very low risk of PHGB. In fact, no individual with liver stiffness below 21 kPa developed this outcome. Our results confirm that UGE can be safely spared in patients with liver stiffness below 21 kPa. 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001358
    Prognostic factors associated with mortality in patients with gastric fundal variceal bleeding. Komori Keishi,Kubokawa Masaru,Ihara Eikichi,Akahoshi Kazuya,Nakamura Kazuhiko,Motomura Kenta,Masumoto Akihide World journal of gastroenterology AIM:To determine the prognostic factors associated with mortality in patients with gastric fundal variceal (GFV) bleeding. METHODS:In total, 42 patients were endoscopically diagnosed with GFV bleeding from January 2000 to March 2014. We retrospectively reviewed the patients' medical records and assessed their history, etiology of liver cirrhosis, disease conditions, treatment options for GFV bleeding, medications administered before and after onset of GFV bleeding, blood test results (hemoglobin, albumin, and bilirubin concentrations), and imaging results (including computed tomography and abdominal ultrasonography). We also assessed the prognostic factors associated with short-term mortality (up to 90 d) and long-term mortality in all patients. RESULTS:Multivariate analysis showed that prophylactic administration of antibiotics was an independent prognostic factor associated with decreases in short-term mortality (OR = 0.08, 95%CI: 0.01-0.52) and long-term mortality (OR = 0.27, 95%CI: 0.08-0.91) in patients with GFV bleeding. In contrast, concurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and regular use of proton pump inhibitors (PPI) were independent prognostic factors associated with increases in short-term mortality (HCC: OR = 15.4, 95%CI: 2.08-114.75; PPI: OR = 12.76, 95%CI: 2.13-76.52) and long-term mortality (HCC: OR = 7.89, 95%CI: 1.98-31.58; PPI: OR = 10.91, 95%CI: 2.86-41.65) in patients with GFV bleeding. The long-term overall survival rate was significantly lower in patients who regularly used PPI than in those who did not use PPI ( = 0.0074). CONCLUSION:Administration of antibiotics is associated with decreased short- and long-term mortality, while concurrent HCC and regular PPI administration are associated with increased short- and long-term mortality. 10.3748/wjg.v23.i3.496
    Acute kidney injury predicts mortality in cirrhotic patients with gastric variceal bleeding. Hsieh Yun-Cheng,Lee Kuei-Chuan,Chen Ping-Hsien,Su Chien-Wei,Hou Ming-Chih,Lin Han-Chieh Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology BACKGROUND AND AIM:The International Club of Ascites (ICA) recently proposed a new definition of acute kidney injury (AKI) in cirrhotic patients. The study evaluated the ICA-AKI criteria and their association with the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with gastric variceal bleeding (GVB). METHODS:A retrospective cohort study using prospective database of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with the first presentation of acute GVB at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from April 2007 to December 2010 was performed to evaluate the development of AKI. The study used Cox proportional hazards model to examine the association of ICA-AKI criteria and mortality. RESULTS:Of 113 patients, 46 (41%) fulfilled the ICA-AKI criteria and most (70%) initially had stage 1 AKI. Child-Pugh score, systemic blood pressure at admission, and number of blood units transfused before endoscopy were independent predictors of AKI. Among patients with AKI, 30% progressed to higher stages with more advanced liver disease, lower serum sodium, more units of blood transfusion, higher frequency of infection, and higher serum creatinine levels at diagnosis of AKI. The 6-week mortality rate was significantly higher in patients with AKI than in patients without AKI (37% vs 3%, P < 0.001), and AKI stages were independent predictors of 3-month survival (93% in patients without AKI, 73% in stage 1, and 30% in stages 2 and 3, P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS:The occurrence of AKI as defined by the ICA criteria is common in cirrhotic patients with acute GVB. The presence of AKI was associated with much higher 6-week mortality, and the stages of AKI further predicted 3-month survival. 10.1111/jgh.13777
    Corrigendum to "Modelling urea-cycle disorder citrullinemia type 1 with disease-specific iPSCs" [Biochem. Biophys. Res. Commun. 486(3) (2017) 613-619]. Yoshitoshi-Uebayashi Elena Yukie,Toyoda Taro,Yasuda Katsutaro,Kotaka Maki,Nomoto Keiko,Okita Keisuke,Yasuchika Kentaro,Okamoto Shinya,Takubo Noriyuki,Nishikubo Toshiya,Soga Tomoyoshi,Uemoto Shinji,Osafune Kenji Biochemical and biophysical research communications 10.1016/j.bbrc.2017.05.055
    Acute variceal bleeding: risk stratification and management (including TIPS). Hernández-Gea Virginia,Berbel Claudia,Baiges Anna,García-Pagán Juan C Hepatology international Acute variceal bleeding should be suspected in all patients with cirrhosis presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Vasoactive drugs and prophylactic antibiotics must be started as soon as possible, even before performing the diagnostic endoscopy. Once the patient is hemodynamically stable, upper gastrointestinal endoscopy should be performed in order to confirm the diagnosis and provide endoscopic therapy (preferably banding ligation). After this initial approach, the most appropriate therapy to prevent both early and late rebleeding must be instituted following a risk stratification strategy. The present chapter will focus on the initial management of patients with acute variceal bleeding, including general management and hemostatic therapies, as well as the available treatments in case of failure to control bleeding or development of rebleeding. 10.1007/s12072-017-9804-3
    Application of chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment score for the predication of mortality after esophageal variceal hemorrhage post endoscopic ligation. Wong Ming-Wun,Chen Ming-Jen,Chen Huan-Lin,Kuo Yu-Chi,Lin I-Tsung,Wu Chia-Hsien,Lee Yuan-Kai,Cheng Chun-Han,Bair Ming-Jong PloS one BACKGROUND:Esophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH) is one of the high mortality complications in cirrhotic patients. Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is currently the standard therapy for EVH. However, some patients have expired during hospitalization or survived shortly after management. AIM:To evaluate hospital and 6-week mortality by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score compared to a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class. METHODS:We retrospectively collected 714 cirrhotic patients with EVH post EVL between July 2010 and June 2016 at Taitung MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taiwan. CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were calculated for all patients admitted. RESULTS:Among the 714 patients, the overall hospital and 6-week mortality rates were 6.9% (49/715) and 13.1% (94/715) respectively. For predicting hospital death, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.964, 0.876, and 0.846. For predicting 6-week death, AUROC values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.943, 0.817, and 0.834. CLIF-SOFA score had higher AUROC value with statistical significance under pairwise comparison than did MELD score and CTP class in prediction of not only hospital but also 6-week mortality. The history of hepatocellular carcinoma was the risk factor for 6-week mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 5.5 for 6-week mortality and 6.5 for hospital mortality on admission. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 6.5 for both 6-week and hospital mortality. CONCLUSION:CLIF-SOFA score predicted post-EVL prognosis well. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ≥6 suggests higher 6-week mortality and CLIF-SOFA score ≥7 suggests higher hospital mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ≥7 suggests higher 6-week and hospital mortality. 10.1371/journal.pone.0182529
    Recalibrated MELD and hepatic encephalopathy are prognostic factors in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. Rudler Marika,Bureau Christophe,Carbonell Nicolas,Mathurin Philippe,Saliba Faouzi,Mallat Arianne,Massard Julien,Golmard Jean-Louis,Bernard-Chabert Brigitte,Dib Nina,Thabut Dominique, Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver BACKGROUND & AIMS:Early TIPS placement must be considered in patients with Child-Pugh B and active bleeding at endoscopy or in patients with Child-Pugh C 10-13 and variceal bleeding. However, active bleeding at endoscopy is a subjective criterion. Moreover, a previous study has shown that a MELD-based score accurately predicted 6-week mortality and helped to stratify patients. Using a prospective series of patients included in a multicentre study before the era of early TIPS, we aimed (i) to identify factors associated with 6-week mortality, focusing on the prognostic value of active bleeding; and (ii) to assess whether a recalibrated MELD-based score accurately predicted 6-week mortality. METHODS:Ancillary study of the prospective multicentre Baveno IV study, including patients with acute variceal bleeding. RESULTS:Two hundred and nineteen patients were analysed (Child-Pugh A/B/C = 18/45/37%). The overall actuarial likelihood of survival on day 42 was 84%. The variability for the diagnosis of active bleeding at endoscopy was high (range, 41.4% to 84.6% among the centres). Active bleeding at endoscopy was not associated with 6-week mortality in the entire population or in Child-Pugh B patients. In a multivariate analysis, independent factors associated with mortality were liver function, infection, HE and HCC. The recalibrated MELD-based score was accurate in predicting 6-week mortality (AUROC = 0.787). The recalibrated MELD-based score demonstrated better performance compared to the MELD score. CONCLUSION:The recalibrated MELD-based score accurately predicted mortality in our prospective cohort. Active bleeding at endoscopy had no prognostic value in cirrhotic patients presenting with acute variceal bleeding. Standardizing active bleeding assessment at endoscopy is warranted. 10.1111/liv.13632
    A simplified prognostic model to predict mortality in patients with acute variceal bleeding. Lee Han Hee,Park Jae Myung,Han Seunghoon,Park Sung Min,Kim Hee Yeon,Oh Jung Hwan,Kim Chang Wook,Yoon Seung Kew,Choi Myung-Gyu Digestive and liver disease : official journal of the Italian Society of Gastroenterology and the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver BACKGROUND:Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a major cause of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality predictors and develop a new simple prognostic model using easily verified factors at admission in AVB patients. METHODS:Between January 2009 and May 2015, 333 consecutive patients with AVB were included. A simplified prognostic model was developed using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6-week mortality. Mortality prediction accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. We compared the new model to existing models of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh scores. RESULTS:The 6-week overall mortality rate was 12.9%. Multivariate analysis showed that C-reactive protein (CRP), total bilirubin, and the international normalized ratio were independent predictors of mortality. A new logistic model using these variables was developed. This model's AUROC was 0.834, which was significantly higher than that of MELD (0.764) or Child-Pugh scores (0.699). Two external validation studies showed that the AUROC of our model was consistently higher than 0.8. CONCLUSIONS:Our new simplified model accurately and consistently predicted 6-week mortality in patients with AVB using objective variables measured at admission. Our system can be used to identify high risk AVB patients. 10.1016/j.dld.2017.11.006
    Bacterial infections in acute variceal hemorrhage despite antibiotics-a multicenter study of predictors and clinical impact. Lee Stephen,Saxinger Lynora,Ma Mang,Prado Verónica,Fernández Joaquin,Kumar Deepali,Gonzalez-Abraldes Juan,Keough Adam,Bastiampillai Ravin,Carbonneau Michelle,Fernandez Javier,Tandon Puneeta United European gastroenterology journal Background and aims:Current guidelines recommend antibiotic prophylaxis in all patients presenting with cirrhosis and acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH). We aimed to evaluate the characteristics and clinical impact of "early" infections (developing within 14 days) of AVH in a real-world setting. Methods:We analyzed retrospective data from a cohort of 371 adult patients with cirrhosis and AVH all of whom had received antibiotic prophylaxis (74% men; mean age 56 years), admitted to tertiary care hospitals in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, and Barcelona, Spain. Sensitivity analyses were presented for culture-positive (confirmed) infections. Results:The mean MELD was 16. Fifty-two percent of patients received quinolones, 45% third-generation cephalosporins and 3% other antibiotics. Fourteen percent (51/371) developed an infection within 14 days of AVH. Seventy-five percent of infections were culture positive and occurred at a mean of six days from AVH. When all infections were considered, respiratory infections were the most common (53%) followed by urinary tract infections (17%) and bacteremia (16%). Resistance patterns differed between countries. Outpatient antibiotic prophylaxis (OR 5.4) and intubation (OR 2.6) were independent predictors of bacterial infection. Bacterial infection (OR 2.6) and the MELD (OR 1.2) were independent predictors of six-week mortality. Conclusions:Early bacterial infections develop in 14% of cirrhotic patients with AVH despite antibiotic prophylaxis, and have a negative impact on six-week mortality. Intubation and outpatient antibiotic prophylaxis are associated with increased risk of early bacterial infections. Patients at risk should be followed closely with prompt infection workup and local antibiogram-based expansion of antibiotic therapy in case of clinical decline. 10.1177/2050640617704564
    Outcomes of endoscopic intervention for overt GI bleeding in severe thrombocytopenia. Ramos Guilherme Piovezani,Binder Moritz,Hampel Paul,Braga Neto Manuel Bonfim,Sunjaya Dharma,Al Bawardy Badr,Abu Dayyeh Barham K,Buttar Navtej S,Bruining David H,Prabhu-Coelho Nayantara,Larson Mark V,Wong Kee Song Louis M,Rajan Elizabeth Gastrointestinal endoscopy BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in the setting of thrombocytopenia raises concerns about endoscopic procedure risk. We aimed to assess the safety and outcomes of endoscopy for overt GIB in the setting of severe thrombocytopenia in liver cirrhosis (LC) and non-liver cirrhosis (NLC). METHODS:This is a retrospective study on inpatients who underwent endoscopy within 24 hours of presentation for overt GIB with a platelet count (PC) of 20 to <50 × 10/mL. Outcomes included diagnostic and therapeutic yields, procedural adverse events, packed red blood cell (pRBC) and platelet transfusions, recurrent bleeding rate, and all-cause and GIB-related mortality. RESULTS:One hundred forty-four patients were identified. The median PC was 41 × 10/mL and 61% had LC. The diagnostic yield was 68% (LC = 61%, NLC = 79%, P = .04). Therapeutic yield was 60% (59% vs 60%, P = 1.00). The initial hemostasis rate was 94% with one adverse event. The median number of pRBC and platelet transfusions decreased after intervention in the entire cohort. Recurrent bleeding rates were 22% at 1 month and 30% at 1 year, with no differences between groups. An increased international normalized ratio (INR) >2 was a predictor of recurrent bleeding. All-cause mortality was 19% at 1 month and 37% at 1 year, whereas GIB-associated mortality in our cohort was only 3% at 1 month and 4% at 1 year, with no significant difference between LC and NLC. Predictors of mortality were INR >2, activated partial thromboplastin time >38 seconds, hypotension, intensive care unit admission, and pulmonary comorbidities. CONCLUSION:In this study cohort, we observed that endoscopy for overt GIB in the setting of severe thrombocytopenia in patients with LC and NLC appears safe, has moderate diagnostic and therapeutic yields with high initial hemostasis rate, and is associated with a significant decrease in pRBC and platelet transfusions. Recurrent bleeding and all-cause mortality rates remain high. 10.1016/j.gie.2018.01.028
    Model for end-stage liver disease score and hemodynamic instability as a predictor of poor outcome in early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt treatment for acute variceal hemorrhage. Hermie Laurens,Dhondt Elisabeth,Vanlangenhove Peter,Hoste Eric,Geerts Anja,Defreyne Luc European journal of gastroenterology & hepatology OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the outcome of early transjugular portosystemic shunt (TIPS) treatment in patients with a trial-compatible high-risk variceal bleeding and secondly to disclose other predictors of early mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS:A cohort study was conducted on patients referred for a TIPS procedure with or without combined variceal embolization to control acute esophageal variceal bleeding. A total of 32 patients with Child-Pugh C score less than 14 or Child-Pugh B plus active bleeding at endoscopy, admitted for early-TIPS treatment (<72 h), were included. RESULTS:We noted one (3.7%) failure to control bleeding and no rebleeding during 1-year follow-up. Ten (31.3%) patients died within 6 weeks after TIPS placement. Early mortality was associated with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (P=0.025), MELD score of at least 19 (P=0.008) and hemodynamic instability at time of admission (P=0.001). If hemodynamic instability is associated with a high MELD score, the 6-week mortality peaks at 77.8% (P=0.000). CONCLUSION:This study confirms the excellent survival results of early-TIPS treatment for acute variceal bleeding in a selected patient group with a low MELD score. Poor survival in hemodynamically unstable patients with high MELD scores (≥19) contests the guidelines that patients with Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis or Child-Pugh class B with active bleeding on endoscopy should deliberately receive preemptive TIPS treatment after endoscopic haemostasis. 10.1097/MEG.0000000000001222
    On-Treatment Improvement of MELD Score Reduces Death and Hepatic Events in Patients With Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis. Yip Terry Cheuk-Fung,Chan Henry Lik-Yuen,Tse Yee-Kit,Lam Kelvin Long-Yan,Lui Grace Chung-Yan,Wong Vincent Wai-Sun,Wong Grace Lai-Hung The American journal of gastroenterology OBJECTIVES:Antiviral treatment modifies the natural history of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis as reflected by improving Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score over time. We evaluated the impact of on-treatment change of MELD score on clinical outcomes in patients with CHB-related cirrhosis. METHODS:Cirrhotic CHB patients who received entecavir and/or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for at least 6 months in Hong Kong between 2005 and 2016 were identified. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatic events including ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, variceal bleeding, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, and liver transplantation. RESULTS:We identified 1743 cirrhotic CHB patients. Their mean MELD score decreased from 12.3 ± 5.5 at baseline to 11.0 ± 4.7 at month 6. At a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 3.9 (1.9-6.0) years, 290 (16.6%) patients died; 201 (11.5%) developed HCC. Among 1140 patients without prior hepatic events, 150 (13.2%) developed hepatic events. Among 464 patients with baseline MELD score ≥15, the 6-year cumulative mortality was 72.8, 36.7, and 23.1% for unchanged or increased MELD score, 1-5 point improvement in MELD score, and >5 point improvement in MELD score at month 6, respectively (log-rank test, P < 0.001); the corresponding 6-year cumulative incidence of hepatic events was 52.7, 30.5, and 23.9% in the three subgroups (Gray's test, P = 0.004). Patients with MELD score <15 at month 6 had lower risk of mortality and hepatic events (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:On-treatment improvement of MELD score correlates with reduced risk of mortality and hepatic events in cirrhotic CHB patients. 10.1038/s41395-018-0247-9
    Correlation of malaria parasitaemia with peripheral blood monocyte to lymphocyte ratio as indicator of susceptibility to severe malaria in Ghanaian children. Antwi-Baffour Samuel,Kyeremeh Ransford,Buabeng Dorcas,Adjei Jonathan Kofi,Aryeh Claudia,Kpentey George,Seidu Mahmood Abdulai Malaria journal BACKGROUND:Even though malaria is generally on the decline due extensive control and elimination efforts, it still remains a public health problem for over 40% of the world's population. During the course of malaria infection, parasites and red blood cells come under oxidative stress and there is host immune response in an attempt to protect the red blood cells. The frequency of monocytes and lymphocytes in peripheral blood might, therefore, be expected to reflect the state of an individual's immune response to the infection. Circulating monocytes and lymphocytes could therefore serve as an index in relation to malaria parasitaemia. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the relative count of monocytes to lymphocytes in peripheral blood (M:L ratio) can predict parasitaemia and, therefore, the severity of malaria infection. METHODS:Two millilitre of venous blood sample were taken from participants by venisection into anticoagulant tubes. Thick and thin blood films were made and stained with Giemsa and examined for malaria parasites. Whole blood specimen were analysed for full blood count using ABX Pentra 60 C+ automated haematological analyzer. Data was entered into Microsoft Word and analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS, Version 20.0) and Graphpad prism. Spearman's correlation was used to determine correlation between occurrences of clinical malaria and the monocytes and lymphocytes ratio. Statistical significance was taken as p ≤ 0.05 with 95% confidence interval. RESULTS:The study comprised of 1629 (m = 896; f = 733) children up to 5 years presenting with clinical malaria as cases and 445 (m = 257; f = 188) apparently healthy children as controls. The results indicated that there was a significant positive correlation between the monocytes to lymphocytes ratio and the presence of parasites (p = 0.04) and the level of parasitaemia within the age group of 0-3 years (p = 0.02) and 4-5 years (p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS:The monocyte to lymphocyte ratio obtained correlated positively with the presence of malaria as well as the level of parasitaemia. The outcome of this work implies that monocyte to lymphocyte ratio can be used to predict the level of parasitaemia and together with other factors, the development of severe malaria. 10.1186/s12936-018-2569-x
    Sex and acute oesophageal variceal bleeding-related in-hospital mortality: a 15-year retrospective study. Fabbian F,Fedeli U,De Giorgi A,Cappadona R,Guarino M,Gallerani M,De Giorgio R,Manfredini R European review for medical and pharmacological sciences OBJECTIVE:The relationship between in-hospital mortality (IHM) and acute oesophageal variceal bleeding (AOEVB) has not been fully assessed. The aim of this study was to establish the association between sex and mortality for patients hospitalized with AOEVB. PATIENTS AND METHODS:We analyzed hospitalizations from the Italian Health Ministry database by identifying all patients discharged with AOEVB from January 2001 to December 2015. A total of 144,943 hospitalizations were for oesophageal varices, but only 24,570 emergency admissions with AOEVB coded as the primary or secondary diagnosis were included for analysis. Factors independently associated with IHM were evaluated by multilevel logistic regression. RESULTS:Approximately half of the population was aged ≥ 65 years, and nearly 10% was diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma. Overall, the IHM was 11.8%, with 12.1% in males and 11.3% in females, increasing from 9.2% among subjects aged < 55 years to 18.9% among those aged ≥ 85 years. The crude risk of death was slightly higher among females; however, when age and clinical presentation were considered, female sex was associated with reduced mortality. For liver disease, the risk of death in women was lower only in those with non-alcoholic liver disease (odds ratio= 0.77, 0.66-0.89), but it was similar to that in men for unspecified, cancer and alcoholic liver disease. The risk declined over time and was increased in patients with multiple comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS:AOEVB-related IHM decreased from 2001-2005 to 2011-2015. Factors affecting mortality included liver disease, age, sex, development of hepatocellular carcinoma and comorbidities. 10.26355/eurrev_201901_16895
    Thirty-Day Readmission After Esophageal Variceal Hemorrhage and its Impact on Outcomes in the United States. Bilal Mohammad,Abougergi Marwan S,Tayyem Obada,Parupudi Sreeram,Rockey Don C Journal of clinical gastroenterology AIMS:The authors sought to determine the 30-day readmission rate of patients with esophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH) and its impact on mortality, morbidity, and health care utilization. BACKGROUND:EVH is a common complication of cirrhosis and leads to substantial morbidity and mortality. STUDY:The 2014 National Readmission Database was used to examine adult patients with urgent/emergent admissions and a principal diagnosis of EVH. The primary outcome was 30-day readmission. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate, most common reasons for readmission, readmission mortality rate, morbidity, and resource utilization. Independent risk factors for readmission were identified using multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS:A total of 2003 patients with EVH were included. The mean age was 57 years and 29% of patients were female individuals. The all-cause 30-day readmission rate was 16.6%. EVH was the cause of readmission in only 5% of readmissions. Independent predictors of readmission were age and insurance type. The in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for index admissions were 7.3% and 8.2%, respectively. For readmitted patients, the mortality rate was 3.9%. Although morbidity was lower during readmissions (prolonged mechanical ventilation: 0.4% vs. 3.5%, P<0.01 and shock: 1.8% vs. 9.9%, P<0.01), the cumulative additional length of stay was substantial at 2054 days with additional total hospitalization charges of US$20 million. CONCLUSIONS:The all-cause 30-day readmission rate after EVH is 16.6%, with most patients being readmitted for diagnoses unrelated to EVH. Readmission was associated with a substantial increase in in-hospital mortality and resource utilization. Risk factors for readmission were identified, which can potentially be used to decrease readmission rates. 10.1097/MCG.0000000000001249
    Mortality of Cirrhosis Induced Variceal Hemorrhage Is Declining: Can We Do More? Appavu Samuel K Critical care medicine 10.1097/CCM.0000000000003945
    A New Recalibrated Four-Category Child-Pugh Score Performs Better than the Original Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Decompensated Alcoholic Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding: a Real-World Cohort Analysis. Krige Jake,Spence Richard T,Jonas Eduard,Hoogerboord Marius,Ellsmere James World journal of surgery BACKGROUND:There currently is no consensus on how to accurately predict early rebleeding and death after a major variceal bleed. This study investigated the relative predictive performances of the original Child-Pugh (CP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and a four-category recalibrated Child-Pugh (rCP). METHODS:This prospective study included all adult patients admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital with acute esophageal variceal bleeding secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis, between January 2000 and December 2017. CP and rCP grades and MELD score were calculated on admission, and the predictive ability in discriminating in-hospital rebleeding and death was compared by area under receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. RESULTS:During the study period, 403 consecutive adult patients were treated for bleeding esophageal varices of whom 225 were secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis. Twenty-four (10.6%) patients were CP grade A, 88 (39.1%) grade B and 113 (50.2%) grade C on hospital admission. MELD scores ranged from 6 to 40. Thirty-one (13.8%) patients rebleed, and 41 (18.2%) patients died. There was no difference in the discriminatory capacity of the CP (AUROC 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.670) and MELD (AUROC 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.73) to predict rebleeding (p = 0.72), or between the Child-Pugh (AUROC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.81) and MELD (AUROC 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.80) to predict death (p = 0.35). The rCP classification (A-D) had a significantly improved discriminatory capacity (AUROC 0.83 95% CI 0.77-0.89) compared to the CP score (A-C) and MELD to predict death (p = 0.004). CONCLUSION:A recalibrated Child-Pugh score outperforms the original Child-Pugh grade and MELD score in predicting in-hospital death in patients with bleeding esophageal varices secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis. 10.1007/s00268-019-05211-8
    Treatment Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Acute Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma. Lee Yu Rim,Park Soo Young,Tak Won Young Gut and liver Background/Aims:The treatment outcomes and prognostic markers of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients remain unclear. Therefore, we evaluated the clinical outcomes and prognostic factors of AVB in HCC patients. Methods:Cirrhotic patients with endoscopically confirmed AVB between 2007 and 2013 were enrolled in this prospective study. Prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results:Among the 329 enrolled patients, 125 patients (38.0%) were diagnosed with HCC. The 6-week mortality rates of all enrolled AVB patients and the HCC subgroup were 14.9% and 26.4%. The 5-day treatment failure, 6-week mortality, cirrhosis-related complications, and duration of hospitalization were greater in HCC patients than in non-HCC patients (all p<0.05). In the HCC subgroup, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (hazard ratio [HR], 1.145; p=0.001) and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage (C-D vs 0-B) (HR, 3.096; p=0.019) were independent predictors of 6-week mortality. Our study revealed that 85% of HCC patients with both a MELD score ≥15.5 and BCLC stage C-D died within 6 weeks, and the 6-week mortality risk was 21-fold higher in this group than in the group with a lower MELD score and earlier HCC stage (p<0.001). Conclusions:The 5-day treatment failure and 6-week mortality rates were significantly higher among AVB patients with HCC than those without HCC. The MELD score and the presence and stage of HCC are strong predictors of 6-week mortality in patients with AVB. 10.5009/gnl19155
    Mortality Related Factors in Patients with Variceal Bleeding with MELD Score ≥ 18. Mehmood Tahir,Zia Muhammad Qasim,Latif Ansar,Ansar Saad Journal of the College of Physicians and Surgeons--Pakistan : JCPSP OBJECTIVE:To find and analyse the associated determinants of mortality in admitted patients in cirrhotic patients with MELD score >18 presenting in emergency department with variceal bleeding. STUDY DESIGN:Cross-sectional study. PLACE AND DURATION OF STUDY:Department of Emergency Medicine, King Sultan Military Hospital Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, from July 2017 to January 2018. METHODOLOGY:A total of 235 patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria were enrolled in the study. Diagnosis of cirrhosis was made if the patients had platelets <150000/μl, PT >3 sec (prolonged), biochemical (reversal of ALT, AST ratio, albumin <3.5 g/dl) and ultrasongraphic coarse echotexture of liver and splenomegaly; and presence of all of the above variables and for at least six months. Variceal bleeding diagnosed on presentation and emergency endoscopy. MELD score was calculated by following formula. MELD = 3.78 [Ln serum bilirubin (mg/dL)] +11.2 [Ln INR] +9.57 [Ln serum creatinine (mg/dl)] +6.430 NR. Outcome of patients treatment was to record associated morbidity and mortality during follow-up period of one month. RESULTS:There were 156 (66.4%) male and 79 (33.6%) female cirrhotic patients. The mean age was 47.8 ±8.7 years. Out of 235 patients of liver cirrhosis, 47 (20.0%) expired during the hospital stay, while 188 (80.0%) patients survived and discharged from the hospital. Most of the cirrhotic patients were experienced with MELD score 18-20, i.e. 144 (61.3%) followed by 70 (29.8%) in 21-25 and 21 (8.9%) had the range of 26-30. In-hospital mortality rate was statistically insignificant (p>0.05) with respect to MELD scores. Probability of survival was 0.80. CONCLUSION:Liver cirrhosis with MELD score >18 and variceal bleeding is highly prevalent in young adult patients, more likely in male patients having duration of disease since >1 year to 3 years such that every 1 of 5 patients expired during the hospital stay. Probability of survival was 80%. 10.29271/jcpsp.2019.12.1199
    "Beyond the thin ideal: Development and validation of the Fit Ideal Internalization Test (FIIT) for women": Correction to Uhlmann et al. (2019). Psychological assessment Reports an error in "Beyond the thin ideal: Development and validation of the Fit Ideal Internalization Test (FIIT) for women" by Laura R. Uhlmann, Caroline L. Donovan and Melanie J. Zimmer-Gembeck (, Advanced Online Publication, Sep 19, 2019, np). In the article, there are two errors in the Method section for Study 2. First, in the "Body dissatisfaction" subsection, the range of total scores for the Body-Image Ideals Questionnaire was incorrectly listed as being "between 0 and 99." The correct range is from - 3 to 9. Second, in the "Dieting and bulimia" subsection, the reference for the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-26) was incorrectly cited as "Garner et al., 1983." Garner, D. M., Olmsted, M. P., Bohr, Y., & Garfinkel, P. E. (1982). The Eating Attitudes Test: Psychometric features and clinical correlates. , 12, 871-878. http://dx.doi .org/10.1017/s0033291700049163. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2019-55793-001.) Females are at risk for body image and eating disturbance when they internalize societally prescribed standards of Western beauty. With respect to messages to be thin or muscular, numerous scales are available that measure internalization. However, many women are now receiving messages about the desirability of being both thin and toned, yet no self-report measure of internalization of a fit female body ideal exists. Our aim was to develop a multidimensional tool (i.e., the Fit Ideal Internalization Test; FIIT) useful for assessing women's internalization of the fit ideal (i.e., a lean and toned body ideal). Three studies were conducted, recruiting independent groups of women attending university to complete surveys. In Study 1 ( = 300, age 16-51), women completed the FIIT items, and a 3-factor structure of fit idealization (8 items), fit overvaluation (8 items), and fit behavioral drive (4 items) was established through exploratory factor analysis. Also, items loading highly on each of the factors had good interitem correlations. In Study 2 ( = 354, age 16-63), women completed the 20-item FIIT and validation measures. The 3-factor structure of the FIIT was confirmed, and findings supported convergent, discriminant, and incremental validity of the FIIT subscale scores (and a total score). In Study 3 ( = 67, age 17-50), the 2-week test-retest reliability of the FIIT scores was high. Overall, the 3 FIIT subscales are related but also distinct domains of fit ideal internalization that conform to theory and may be used as individual subscales or potentially as a composite score. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved). 10.1037/pas0000794
    New model predicting gastroesophageal varices and variceal hemorrhage in patients with chronic liver disease. Ma Jia-Li,He Ling-Ling,Jiang Yu,Yang Jun-Ru,Li Ping,Zang Yao,Wei Hong-Shan Annals of hepatology INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES:The predictors for gastroesophageal varices (GOV) and hemorrhage development have not been well studied in different liver diseases or different population. This study aimed to evaluate whether a new algorithm focusing on chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients is also applicable to other chronic liver diseases (CLDs) in Chinese population. PATIENTS OR MATERIALS AND METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed 659 CHB patients and 386 patients with other CLDs. A total of 439 CHB patients were included in training set, the other 220 CHB patients and other patients with CLDs were included in validation set. A new algorithm for diagnosing GOV was established and its sensitivity and specificity for predicting the varices was verified. RESULTS:Multivariable logistic regression revealed that the rough surface of the liver (p<0.001), splenic thickness (p<0.001), and liver stiffness (p=0.006) were independent predictors of GOV. The new algorithm was considered to be a reliable diagnostic model to evaluate the presence of varices. The AUROC was 0.94 (p<0.001) in CHB validation set and 0.90 (<0.001) in non-CHB validation set. When the cut-off value was chosen as -1.048, the sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing GOV in CHB population were 89.1% and 82.5%, respectively. Importantly, the new algorithm accurately predicted the variceal hemorrhage not only in CHB patients, but also in patients with other CLDs. CONCLUSION:The new algorithm is regarded as a reliable model to prognosticate varices and variceal hemorrhage, and stratified not only the high-risk CHB patients, but also in patients with other CLDs for developing GOV and variceal bleeding. 10.1016/j.aohep.2019.12.007
    Platelet-albumin-bilirubin score - a predictor of outcome of acute variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. Elshaarawy Omar,Allam Naglaa,Abdelsameea Eman,Gomaa Asmaa,Waked Imam World journal of hepatology BACKGROUND:The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score was validated as a prognostic indicator in patients with liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma. Incorporating platelet count in the platelet-albumin-bilirubin (PALBI) score improved validity in predicting outcome of patients undergoing resection and ablation. AIM:To evaluate the PALBI score in predicting outcome of acute variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS:The data of 1517 patients with cirrhosis presenting with variceal bleeding were analyzed. Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) class, Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), ALBI and PALBI scores were calculated on admission, and were correlated to the outcome of variceal bleeding. Areas under the receiving-operator characteristic curve (AUROC) were calculated for survival and rebleeding. RESULTS:Mean age was 52.6 years; 1176 were male (77.5%), 69 CTP-A (4.5%), 434 CTP-B (29.2%), 1014 CTP-C (66.8%); 306 PALBI-1 (20.2%), 285 PALBI-2 (18.8%), and 926 PALBI-3 (61.1%). Three hundred and thirty-two patients died during hospitalization (21.9%). Bleeding-related mortality occurred in 11% of CTP-B, 28% of CTP-C, in 21.8% of PALBI-2 and 34.4% of PALBI-3 patients. The AUROC for predicting survival of acute variceal bleeding was 0.668, 0.689, 0.803 and 0.871 for CTP, MELD, ALBI and PALBI scores, respectively. For predicting rebleeding the AUROC was 0.681, 0.74, 0.766 and 0.794 for CTP, MELD, ALBI and PALBI scores, respectively. CONCLUSION:PALBI score on admission is a good prognostic indicator for patients with acute variceal bleeding and predicts early mortality and rebleeding. 10.4254/wjh.v12.i3.99
    A new prognostic algorithm based on stage of cirrhosis and HVPG to improve risk-stratification after variceal bleeding. Kumar Ashish,Sharma Praveen,Arora Anil Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) La Mura et al(1) described a new prognostic algorithm to improve risk-stratification after variceal bleeding. Although this new algorithms looks appealing, it is unlikely to translate into any meaningful benefit in survival or reduced cost. 10.1002/hep.31254
    Diagnostic Values of Blood Count Values and Ratios in Distinguishing between Peptic Ulcer Bleeding and Esophagogastric Variceal Bleeding. Zhang Liyan,Zhang Yuezhan Clinical laboratory BACKGROUND:To investigate the diagnostic values of blood count values and ratios in distinguishing between peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) and esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB). METHODS:Due to acute hematemesis and or melaena, 57 patients diagnosed with PUB (PUB group) and 33 cases with EGVB (EGVB group) were enrolled in this retrospective study. The levels of peripheral blood leukocyte counts (leukocyte), neutrophil counts (neutrophil), lymphocyte counts (lymphocyte), platelet counts (platelet), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were recorded and compared between the two groups. Student's t-test of independent samples was adopted for comparing the mean between the two groups. Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Comparison of AUC was performed using the Z-test. RESULTS:The levels of leukocyte, neutrophil, lymphocyte, platelet, and PLR were significantly increased in PUB group compared with EGVB group (all p < 0.05), while there was no significant statistical difference of NLR (p > 0.05); moreover, AUCs in distinguishing PUB from EGVB were 0.859, 0.811, 0.760, 0.952, and 0.687 for leukocyte, neutrophil, lymphocyte, platelet, and PLR, respectively, and significant differences were observed between platelet and any parameter of the rest (all p < 0.05); finally, the cutoff values were 8 x 109/L in distinguishing between PUB and EGVB (specificity 78.95%, sensitivity 87.88%, and Youden index 0.668) for leukocyte, 5.3 x 109/L (specificity 70.18%, sensitivity 81.82%, and Youden index 0.520) for neutrophil, 1.2 x 109/L (specificity 84.21%, sensitivity 60.61%, and Youden index 0.448) for lymphocyte, 131 x 109/L (specificity 92.98%, sensitivity 90.91%, and Youden index 0.839) for platelet, and 88 (specificity 70.18%, sensitivity 63.64%, and Youden index 0.338) for PLR. CONCLUSIONS:Leukocyte, neutrophil, lymphocyte, platelet and PLR are useful and potential biomarkers in distinguishing between PUB and EGVB; moreover, platelet can demonstrate more accurate and reliable diagnostic value. 10.7754/Clin.Lab.2019.190927
    Prognosis of endotherapy versus splenectomy and devascularization for variceal bleeding in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis. Ma Jia-Li,He Ling-Ling,Li Ping,Jiang Li,Wei Hong-Shan Surgical endoscopy OBJECTIVE:This study aimed to compare the long-term outcome of endotherapy versus a combination of splenectomy and devascularization for variceal bleeding in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis (HBRC). MATERIALS AND METHODS:A total of 1074 patients with HBRC and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) treated with endotherapy and 248 patients with HBRC treated with a combination of splenectomy and devascularization surgery were included in the analysis. After one-to-one propensity score matching, 151 paired patients were selected. The primary end-point was death. The secondary outcomes were 3-year survival, 5-year survival, and rebleeding. Complications were recorded. RESULTS:The median follow-up time was 1165 days in the endoscopic group and 1709 days in the surgical group. Before matching, the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were significantly lower in the endoscopic group than in the surgical group (91.1 vs 96.3%, P = 0.017; 79.6 vs 91.6%, P = 0.001; 65.2 vs 81.3%, P = 0.001). After matching, no significant differences were found between groups (94.5 vs 95.2%, P = 0.767; 87.0 vs 88.9%, P = 0.635; 77.9 vs 77.9%, P = 0.905). The rebleeding rate was lower in the surgical group than in the endoscopic group; the rebleeding-free survival rate was similar in the two groups. No patient died of complications. No statistically significant difference was observed in complications between groups. CONCLUSIONS:Both endotherapy and a combination of splenectomy and devascularization are good choices for patients with AVB. The rebleeding rate was lower after the surgical procedure, but the long-term prognosis was similar. 10.1007/s00464-020-07682-6
    Determinants of mortality in patients with cirrhosis and uncontrolled variceal bleeding. Kumar Rahul,Kerbert Annarein J C,Sheikh M Faisal,Roth Noam,Calvao Joana A F,Mesquita Monica D,Barreira Ana I,Gurm Haqeeqat S,Ramsahye Komal,Mookerjee Rajeshwar P,Yu Dominic,Davies Neil H,Mehta Gautam,Agarwal Banwari,Patch David,Jalan Rajiv Journal of hepatology BACKGROUND & AIMS:Failure to control oesophago-gastric variceal bleeding (OGVB) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are both important prognostic factors in cirrhosis. The aims of this study were to determine whether ACLF and its severity define the risk of death in OGVB and whether insertion of rescue transjugular intrahepatic shunt (TIPS) improves survival in patients with failure to control OGVB and ACLF. METHODS:Data on 174 consecutive eligible patients, with failure to control OGVB between 2005 and 2015, were collected from a prospectively maintained intensive care unit registry. Rescue TIPS was defined as technically successful TIPS within 72 hours of presentation with failure to control OGVB. Cox-proportional hazards regression analyses were applied to explore the impact of ACLF and TIPS on survival in patients with failure to control OGVB. RESULTS:Patients with ACLF (n = 119) were significantly older, had organ failures and higher white cell count than patients with acute decompensation (AD, n = 55). Mortality at 42-days and 1-year was significantly higher in patients with ACLF (47.9% and 61.3%) than in those with AD (9.1% and 12.7%, p <0.001), whereas there was no difference in the number of endoscopies and transfusion requirements between these groups. TIPS was inserted in 78 patients (AD 21 [38.2%]; ACLF 57 [47.8%]; p = 0.41). In ACLF, rescue TIPS insertion was an independent favourable prognostic factor for 42-day mortality. In contrast, rescue TIPS did not impact on the outcome of patients with AD. CONCLUSIONS:This study shows that in patients with failure to control OGVB, the presence and severity of ACLF determines the risk of 42-day and 1-year mortality. Rescue TIPS is associated with improved survival in patients with ACLF. LAY SUMMARY:Variceal bleeding that is not controlled by initial endoscopy is associated with high risk of death. The results of this study showed that in the occurrence of failure of the liver and other organs defines the risk of death. In these patients, insertion of a shunt inside the liver to drain the portal vein improves survival. 10.1016/j.jhep.2020.06.010
    C-reactive Protein Can Predict Patients with Cirrhosis at a High Risk of Early Mortality after Acute Esophageal Variceal Bleeding. Ichikawa Takeshi,Machida Nobuaki,Kaneko Hiroaki,Oi Itaru,A Fujino Masayuki Internal medicine (Tokyo, Japan) Objective The aim of this study was to identify patients with a high risk of early mortality after acute esophageal variceal bleeding by measuring the C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 154 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted with acute esophageal variceal bleeding. Differences between categorical variables were assessed by the chi-square test. Continuous variables were compared using the Mann-Whitney U-test. Multivariate logistic regression analyses consisting of clinical laboratory parameters were performed to identify risk factors associated with the 6-week mortality. The discriminative ability and the best cut-off value were assessed by a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results Child-Pugh C patients showed a significantly higher 6-week mortality than Child-Pugh A or B patients (38% vs. 6%, p<0.0001). The 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients was associated with the age (p<0.0001), etiology of cirrhosis (p=0.003), hepatocellular carcinoma (p=0.0003), portal vein thrombosis (p=0.005), baseline creatinine (p=0.0001), albumin (p=0.001), white blood cell count (p=0.038), baseline CRP [p=0.0004; area under the ROC (AUROC)=0.765; optimum cut-off value at 1.30 mg/dL] and bacterial infection (p=0.019). We determined that CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL was an independent predictor for 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients [odds ratio (OR)=8.789; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.080-47.496; p=0.003], along with a creatinine level of 0.71 mg/dL (OR=17.628; 95% CI: 2.349-384.426; p=0.004) (73% mortality if CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL vs. 19% if CRP<1.30 mg/dL, p<0.0001). Conclusion In Child-Pugh C patients with esophageal variceal bleeding, a baseline CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL can help identify patients with an increased risk of mortality. 10.2169/internalmedicine.1447-18
    Accuracy of Consecutive Fecal Calprotectin Measurements to Predict Relapse in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients. Dai Cong,Cao Qin,Jiang Min Journal of clinical gastroenterology 10.1097/MCG.0000000000000807
    Correction to Lancet Infect Dis 2020; published online March 11, https://doi.org/10.1016/ S1473-3099(20)30144-4. The Lancet. Infectious diseases 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30251-6
    Risk Stratification in Acute Variceal Bleeding: Child-Pugh Versus Model for End-stage Liver Disease. Reverter Enric,Genesca Joan,Augustin Salvador,Abraldes Juan G Journal of clinical gastroenterology 10.1097/MCG.0000000000000815
    Development and Validation of a Novel Model for Outcomes in Patients with Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Bleeding. Rout Gyanranjan,Sharma Sanchit,Gunjan Deepak,Kedia Saurabh,Saraya Anoop,Nayak Baibaswata,Singh Vishwajeet,Kumar Ramesh,Shalimar Digestive diseases and sciences BACKGROUND:Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in patients with cirrhosis is associated with high mortality, ranging from 12 to 20% at 6 weeks. The existing prognostic models for AVB lack precision and require further validation. AIM:In this prospective study, we aimed to develop and validate a new prognostic model for AVB, and compared it with the existing models. METHODS:We included 285 patients from March 2017 to November 2017 in the derivation cohort and 238 patients from December 2017 to June 2018 in the validation cohort. Two prognostic models were developed from derivation cohort by logistic regression analysis. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS:The 6-week mortality was 22.1% in derivation cohort and 22.3% in validation cohort, P = 0.866. Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) [odds ratio (OR) 1.106] and encephalopathy (E) (OR 4.658) in one analysis and Child-Pugh score (OR 1.379) and serum creatinine (OR 1.474) in another analysis were significantly associated with 6-week mortality. MELD-E model (AUROC 0.792) was superior to Child-creatinine model (AUROC) in terms of discrimination. The MELD-E model had highest AUROC; as compared to other models-MELD score (AUROC 0.751, P = 0.036), Child-Pugh score (AUROC 0.737, P = 0.037), D'Amico model (AUROC 0.716, P = 0.014) and Augustin model (AUROC 0.739, P = 0.018) in derivation cohort. In validation cohort, the discriminatory performance of MELD-E model (AUROC 0.805) was higher as compared to other models including MELD score (AUROC 0.771, P = 0.048), Child-Pugh score (AUROC 0.746, P = 0.011), Augustin model (AUROC 0.753, P = 0.039) and D'Amico model (AUROC 0.736, P = 0.021). CONCLUSION:In cirrhotic patients with AVB, the novel MELD-Encephalopathy model predicts 6 weeks mortality with higher accuracy than the existing prognostic models. 10.1007/s10620-019-05557-y
    Predictors of Re-bleeding and Mortality Among Patients with Refractory Variceal Bleeding Undergoing Salvage Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt (TIPS). Maimone Sergio,Saffioti Francesca,Filomia Roberto,Alibrandi Angela,Isgrò Grazia,Calvaruso Vincenza,Xirouchakis Elias,Guerrini Gian Piero,Burroughs Andrew K,Tsochatzis Emmanuel,Patch David Digestive diseases and sciences BACKGROUND:Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) has proven clinical efficacy as rescue therapy for cirrhotic patients with acute portal hypertensive bleeding who fail endoscopic treatment. AIMS:To investigate predictive factors of 6-week and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing salvage TIPS for refractory portal hypertensive bleeding. METHODS:A total of 144 consecutive patients were retrospectively evaluated. Three logistic regression multivariate models were estimated to individualize prognostic factors for 6-week and 12-month mortality. Log-rank test was used to evaluate survival according to Child-Pugh classes and Bureau's criteria. RESULTS:Mean age 51 ± 10 years, 66% male, mean MELD 18.5 ± 8.3, Child-Pugh A/B/C 8%/38%/54%. TIPS failure occurred in 23(16%) patients and was associated with pre-TIPS portal pressure gradient and pre-TIPS intensive care unit stay. Six-week and 12-month mortality was 36% and 42%, respectively. Pre-TIPS intensive care unit stay, MELD, and Child-Pugh score were independently associated with mortality at 6 weeks. Independent predictors of mortality at 12 months were pre-TIPS intensive care unit stay and Child-Pugh score. CONCLUSIONS:In this large cohort of patients undergoing salvage TIPS, MELD and Child-Pugh scores were predictive of short- and long-term mortality, respectively. Pre-TIPS intensive care unit stay was independently associated with TIPS failure and mortality at 6 weeks and 12 months. Salvage TIPS is futile in patients with Child-Pugh score of 14-15. 10.1007/s10620-018-5412-x
    Prognostic evaluation of patients with acute variceal bleeding. Augustin Salvador,Millán Laura,González Antonio,Coll Mar,Martell María,Genescà Joan Disease markers 10.3233/DMA-2011-0838
    Impact of Helicobacter pylori Infection on Gastric Variceal Bleeding among Patients with Liver Cirrhosis. Elsebaey Mohamed A,Tawfik Mohamed A,Elshweikh Samah A,Negm Manal Saad,Elnaggar Mohammed H,Alghazaly Ghada Mahmoud,Abd-Elsalam Sherief Gastroenterology research and practice Background and Aims:Currently, it is well known that Helicobacter pylori- (-) related peptic ulcer is one of the main causes of nonvariceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients. However, there is a lack of data to identify the exact effect of infection on variceal bleeding. This study was conducted to identify the impact of infection on gastric variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients. Patients and Methods:76 cirrhotic patients with gastric varices were included in this prospective study and divided into 2 groups: nonbleeding gastric varices (32 patients) and bleeding gastric varices (44 patients). The fasting serum gastrin level was measured. Mucosal biopsies from the gastric body and antrum were examined to determine the patterns of gastritis and the presence of . Results:The frequency of infection in the studied patients was 59.2%. There were significant differences between both groups regarding liver decompensation ( = 0.001), red color sign over gastric varices ( = 0.0011), prevalence of infection ( = 0.0049), histological patterns of gastritis ( = 0.0069), and serum gastrin level ( = 0.0200). By multivariate analysis, Child C cirrhosis, red color sign over gastric varices, and -induced follicular gastritis were independent risk factors for bleeding from gastric varices. Conclusion:-induced follicular gastritis is considered as an additional risk factor for bleeding from gastric varices. 10.1155/2019/6529420
    Prognostic markers in patients who have recovered from an acute variceal bleeding: role of HVPG measurement. Bañares Rafael,Catalina María-Vega,Ripoll Cristina,Rincón Diego Disease markers 10.3233/DMA-2011-0839
    Value of the APASL severity score in patients with acute variceal bleeding: a single center experience. Kim Go Heun,Kim Jeong Han,Kim Yong Jin,Ko Soon Young,Choe Won Hyeok,Kwon So Young,Lee Chang Hong Hepatology international BACKGROUND:Acute variceal bleeding is a severe complication in patients with cirrhosis. The Asian Pacific Association for Study of the Liver (APASL) severity score was proposed in 2011. This score is used for evaluating the severity of acute variceal bleeding. However, as this score is largely based on expert opinion, it requires validation. AIM:To determine the value of the APASL severity score. METHODS:We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients treated for acute variceal bleeding at Konkuk University Hospital from 2006 to 2011. The APASL severity score, Child-Pugh score, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score were calculated, and predictive values for treatment failure, rebleeding, and in-hospital mortality were compared by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). RESULTS:A total of 136 patients were enrolled, and all patients were treated by endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) and terlipressin combination therapy. Most patients were male (n = 123, 90.4 %), and the most common etiology was alcohol (n = 91, 66.9 %). Thirteen treatment failures, eight rebleedings, and seven in-hospital mortalities occurred. The AUROCs of the APASL severity score, Child-Pugh score, and MELD score were 0.760, 0.681, and 0.607 for treatment failure; 0.660, 0.714, and 0.677 for rebleeding; and 0.872, 0.847, and 0.735 for in-hospital mortality. A significant difference was only observed between the APASL severity score and MELD score for treatment failure (p = 0.0259). CONCLUSION:APASL severity score was a useful method for predicting treatment failure. However, the predictive value for rebleeding and in-hospital mortality were not satisfactory. 10.1007/s12072-013-9466-8
    Validation of AIMS65 to predict outcomes in acute variceal bleeding: Which risk scoring system outperforms in real practice? Kawaguchi Koichiro,Isomoto Hajime Digestive endoscopy : official journal of the Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society 10.1111/den.13657
    Risk stratification in acute variceal bleeding: Comparison of the AIMS65 score to established upper gastrointestinal bleeding and liver disease severity risk stratification scoring systems in predicting mortality and rebleeding. Robertson Marcus,Ng Jonathan,Abu Shawish Walid,Swaine Adrian,Skardoon Gillian,Huynh Andrew,Deshpande Sheetal,Low Zi Yi,Sievert William,Angus Peter Digestive endoscopy : official journal of the Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society BACKGROUND AND AIM:Risk stratification is recommended in all patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). It remains unclear whether liver disease severity or upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) scoring algorithms offer superior predictive ability. We aimed to validate the AIMS65 score as a predictor of mortality in AVB, and to compare AIMS65 with established UGIB and liver disease severity risk stratification scores. METHODS:International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes identified patients presenting with AVB to three tertiary centers over a 48-month period. Patients were risk-stratified using AIMS65, Rockall, pre-endoscopy Rockall, Child-Pugh, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and United Kingdom MELD (UKELD) scores. Primary outcomes were inpatient and 6-week mortality and inpatient rebleeding. RESULTS:Two hundred and twenty-three patients were included. Inpatient and 6-week mortality were 13.9% and 15.5% respectively. Prediction of inpatient mortality by AIMS65 (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUROC: 0.84]) was equivalent to UGIB (Rockall: 0.79, pre-Rockall: 0.78) and liver risk scores (MELD: 0.81, UKELD: 0.79, Child-Pugh: 0.78). AIMS65 score ≥3 best defined high- and low-risk groups for inpatient mortality (mortality 37.7% vs 4.9%). AIMS65 (AUROC: 0.62) was equivalent to UGIB risk scores (pre-Rockall: 0.64, Rockall: 0.70) in predicting inpatient rebleeding and superior to liver risk scores (MELD: 0.56, UKELD: 0.57, Child-Pugh: 0.60). CONCLUSIONS:AIMS65 is equivalent to established UGIB and liver disease severity risk stratification scores in predicting mortality, and superior to liver scores in predicting rebleeding. 10.1111/den.13577
    The incidence and predictors of post transarterial chemoembolization variceal bleeding in hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Lin Po-Ting,Teng Wei,Jeng Wen-Juei,Hsieh Yi-Chung,Hung Chen-Fu,Huang Chien-Hao,Lui Kar-Wai,Chen Yi-Cheng,Lin Chen-Chun,Lin Shi-Ming,Sheen I-Shyan,Lin Chun-Yen Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi BACKGROUND & AIMS:Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the standard of care for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Variceal bleeding is a life-threatening complication and may alter the initial treatment plan. This study was aimed to elucidate the risk factors for variceal bleeding in HCC patients receiving TACE treatment. METHODS:From 2005 to 2016, a total of 1233 treatment-naive HCC patients receiving first time TACE treatment in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou medical center were recruited. Pre-TACE status including baseline characteristics, prior history of ascites, and parameters for liver function evaluation were analyzed. All the variables were compared between patients with and without variceal bleeding. RESULTS:Among the 1233 patients, the median age was 63.7 (range 25.8-91.5) years old, and 73.5% were male. Variceal bleeding events were documented in 19 patients (1.5%) within 3 months post TACE treatment. Patients with younger age, cirrhosis, pre-treatment ascites and advanced fibrosis status (higher MELD score, CTP score, ALBI grade, FIB-4 and APRI score) were more likely to encounter post-treatment variceal bleeding. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed existence of ascites (adjusted HR: 4.859 (1.947-12.124), p = 0.001), and higher FIB-4 score (adjusted HR: 4.481 (1.796-11.179), p = 0.001) were the independent predictive factors for variceal bleeding. Patients with post-TACE variceal bleeding are more likely to encounter tumor progression (42.1% vs. 20.3%, p = 0.039) and mortality owing to GI bleeding (15.8% vs. 3%, p = 0.032). CONCLUSION:The incidence of post-TACE variceal bleeding was 1.5%. Patients with post-TACE variceal bleeding have poorer TACE treatment response. The pre-treatment ascites and FIB-4 score are the independent predictors for post-TACE variceal bleeding. 10.1016/j.jfma.2019.08.019
    A new algorithm for predicting long-term survival in chronic hepatitis B patients with variceal bleeding after endoscopic therapy. He Lingling,Li Ping,Jiang Yu,Hu Julong,Ma Jiali,Ye Xiaohui,Yang Junru,Zhou Yuling,Liang Xiuxia,Ai Zhenglin,Lin Yijun,Wei Hongshan Digestive and liver disease : official journal of the Italian Society of Gastroenterology and the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver BACKGROUND AND AIMS:A predictive algorithm for survival is urgently needed in clinical practice. This study aimed to establish an algorithm to predict long-term survival in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with hepatic cirrhosis and variceal bleeding after endoscopic therapy. METHODS:This was a retrospective study in which 603 patients who followed-up for three years were randomly assigned into a training cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. A new score model was devised based on the result of Cox regression analysis in the training cohort, and was verified in the validation cohort. RESULTS:A prediction score model composed of age, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase and MELD score was established. The score ranged from 0 to 11. Areas under the ROC curve of the score were 0.821 (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.769-0.873) and 0.827 (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.753-0.900) in the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Scores 0-4 and 5-11 identified patients as low-risk and high-risk categories, respectively. The cumulative 3-year survival rate was significantly higher in the low-risk group than in the high-risk group (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION:The new score model can be used to predict long-term survival in CHB patients with hepatic cirrhosis and variceal bleeding after endoscopic therapy. 10.1016/j.dld.2019.01.004
    Multicenter Retrospective Risk Assessment of Esophageal Variceal Bleeding in Patients with Cirrhosis: An Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse Elastography-Based Prediction Model. Heo Ja Yoon,Kim Beom Kyung,Park Jun Yong,Kim Do Young,Ahn Sang Hoon,Tak Won Young,Kweon Young Oh,Han Kwang-Hyub,Park Soo Young,Kim Seung Up Gut and liver Background/Aims:Acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) elastography predicts the presence of esophageal varices (EVs). We investigated whether an ARFI-based prediction model can assess EV bleeding (EVB) risk in patients with cirrhosis. Methods:The records of 262 patients with cirrhosis who underwent ARFI elastography and endoscopic surveillance at two institutions in 2008 to 2013 were retrospectively reviewed, and ARFI-spleen diameter-to-platelet ratio scores (ASPS) were calculated. Results:The median patient age (165 men, 97 women) was 56 years. The median ARFI velocity, spleen diameter, platelet count, and ASPS were 1.7 m/sec, 10.1 cm, 145×10/L, and 1.16, respectively. During the median 38-month follow-up, 61 patients experienced EVB. Among all patients (179 without EVs and 83 with EVs), the cutoff value that maximized the sum of the sensitivity (73.1%) and specificity (78.4%) (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.824) for predicting EVB was 2.60. The cumulative EVB incidence was significantly higher in patients with ASPS ≥2.60 than in those with ASPS <2.60 (p<0.001). Among patients with EVs (n=83), 49 had high-risk EVs (HEVs), and 22 had EVB. The cumulative EVB incidence was significantly higher in HEV patients than in low-risk EV patients (p=0.037). At an ASPS of 4.50 (sensitivity, 66.7%; specificity, 70.6%; AUROC, 0.691), the cumulative EVB incidence was significantly higher in patients with a high ASPS than in those with a low ASPS (p=0.045). A higher ASPS independently predicted EVB (hazard ratio, 4.072; p=0.047). Conclusions:ASPS can assess EVB risk in patients with cirrhosis. Prophylactic management should be considered for patients with HEVs and ASPS ≥4.50. 10.5009/gnl18292
    Prognostic value of risk scoring systems for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding. Tantai Xin-Xing,Liu Na,Yang Long-Bao,Wei Zhong-Cao,Xiao Cai-Lan,Song Ya-Hua,Wang Jin-Hai World journal of gastroenterology BACKGROUND:Acute variceal bleeding is one of the deadliest complications of cirrhosis, with a high risk of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality. Some risk scoring systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding have been developed. However, for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding, data regarding the predictive value of these prognostic scores in predicting in-hospital outcomes are limited and controversial. AIM:To validate and compare the overall performance of selected prognostic scoring systems for predicting in-hospital outcomes in cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding. METHODS:From March 2017 to June 2019, cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding were retrospectively enrolled at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University. The clinical Rockall score (CRS), AIMS65 score (AIMS65), Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS), Canada-United Kingdom-Australia score (CANUKA), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD-Na were calculated. The overall performance of these prognostic scoring systems was evaluated. RESULTS:A total of 330 cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding were enrolled; the rates of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality were 20.3% and 10.6%, respectively. For in-hospital rebleeding, the discriminative ability of the CTP and CRS were clinically acceptable, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 0.717 (0.648-0.787) and 0.716 (0.638-0.793), respectively. The other tested scoring systems had poor discriminative ability (AUROCs < 0.7). For in-hospital mortality, the CRS, CTP, AIMS65, MELD-Na and MELD showed excellent discriminative ability (AUROCs > 0.8). The AUROCs of the mGBS, CANUKA and GBS were relatively small, but clinically acceptable (AUROCs > 0.7). Furthermore, the calibration of all scoring systems was good for either in-hospital rebleeding or death. CONCLUSION:For cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding, in-hospital rebleeding and mortality rates remain high. The CTP and CRS can be used clinically to predict in-hospital rebleeding. The performances of the CRS, CTP, AIMS65, MELD-Na and MELD are excellent at predicting in-hospital mortality. 10.3748/wjg.v25.i45.6668