Body Mass Index Trajectories During Young Adulthood and Incident Hypertension: A Longitudinal Cohort in Chinese Population.
Fan Bingbing,Yang Yachao,Dayimu Alim,Zhou Guangshuai,Liu Yanxun,Li Shengxu,Chen Wei,Zhang Tao,Xue Fuzhong
Journal of the American Heart Association
Background This longitudinal study aims to characterize longitudinal body mass index ( BMI ) trajectories during young adulthood (20-40 years) and examine the impact of level-independent BMI trajectories on hypertension risk. Methods and Results The cohort consisted of 3271 participants (1712 males and 1559 females) who had BMI and blood pressure ( BP ) repeatedly measured 4 to 11 times during 2004 to 2015 and information on incident hypertension. Four distinct trajectory groups were identified using latent class growth mixture model: low-stable (n=1497), medium-increasing (n=1421), high-increasing (n=291), sharp-increasing (n=62). Model-estimated levels and linear slopes of BMI at each age point between ages 20 and 40 were calculated in 1-year intervals using the latent class growth mixture model parameters and their first derivatives, respectively. Compared with the low-stable group, the hazard ratios and 95% CI were 2.42 (1.88, 3.11), 4.25 (3.08, 5.87), 11.17 (7.60, 16.41) for the 3 increasing groups, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the standardized odds ratios and 95% CI of model-estimated BMI level for incident hypertension increased in 20 to 35 years, ranging from 0.80 (0.72-0.90) to 1.59 (1.44-1.75); then decreased gradually to 1.54 (1.42-1.68). The standardized odds ratio s of level-adjusted linear slopes increased from 1.22 (1.09-1.37) to 1.79 (1.59-2.01) at 20 to 24 years; then decreased rapidly to 1.12 (0.95-1.32). Conclusions These results indicate that the level-independent BMI trajectories during young adulthood have significant impact on hypertension risk. Age between 20 and 30 years is a crucial period for incident hypertension, which has implications for early prevention.
Cardiovascular Health and Stroke in Older British Men: Prospective Findings From the British Regional Heart Study.
Ahmed Ayesha,Pinto Pereira Snehal M,Lennon Lucy,Papacosta Olia,Whincup Peter,Wannamethee Goya
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:Research exploring the utility of cardiovascular health (CVH) and its Life's Simple 7 (LS7) components (body mass index, blood pressure [BP], glucose, cholesterol, physical activity, smoking, and diet) for prevention of stroke in older adults is limited. In the British Regional Heart Study, we explored (1) prospective associations of LS7 metrics and composite CVH scores with, and their impact on, stroke in middle and older age; and (2) if change in CVH was associated with subsequent stroke. METHODS:Men without cardiovascular disease were followed from baseline recruitment (1978-1980), and again from re-examination 20 years later, for stroke over a median period of 20 years and 16 years, respectively. LS7 were measured at each time point except baseline diet. Cox models estimated hazard ratios (95% CI) of stroke for (1) ideal and intermediate versus poor levels of LS7; (2) composite CVH scores; and (3) 4 CVH trajectory groups (low-low, low-high, high-low, high-high) derived by dichotomising CVH scores from each time point across the median value. Population attributable fractions measured impact of LS7. RESULTS:At baseline (n=7274, mean age 50 years), healthier levels of BP, physical activity, and smoking were associated with reduced stroke risk. At 20-year follow-up (n=3798, mean age 69 years) only BP displayed an association. Hazard ratios for intermediate and ideal (versus poor) levels of BP 0.65 (0.52-0.81) and 0.40 (0.24-0.65) at baseline; and 0.84 (0.67-1.05) and 0.57 (0.36-0.90) at 20-year follow-up. With reference to low-low trajectory, the low-high trajectory was associated with 40% reduced risk, hazard ratio 0.60 (0.44-0.83). Associations of CVH scores weakened, and population attributable fractions of LS7 reduced, from middle to old age; population attributable fraction of nonideal BP from 53% to 39%. CONCLUSIONS:Except for BP, CVH is weakly associated with stroke at older ages. Prevention strategies for older adults should prioritize BP control but also enhance focus beyond traditional risk factors.
Association of Longitudinal Trajectories of Systolic BP with Risk of Incident CKD: Results from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study.
Joo Young Su,Lee Changhyun,Kim Hyung Woo,Jhee Jonghyun,Yun Hae-Ryong,Park Jung Tak,Chang Tae Ik,Yoo Tae-Hyun,Kang Shin-Wook,Han Seung Hyeok
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN
BACKGROUND:Although hypertension is a well known risk factor for CKD, few studies have evaluated the association between temporal trends of systolic BP and kidney function decline in persons without hypertension. METHODS:We studied whether changes in systolic BP over time could influence incident CKD development in 4643 individuals without CKD and hypertension participating in the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, a prospective community-based cohort study. Using group-based trajectory modeling, we categorized three distinct systolic BP trajectories: decreasing, stable, and increasing. The primary outcome was incident CKD development, defined as two consecutive eGFR measurements <60 ml/min per 1.73 m. RESULTS:Among participants with an increasing systolic BP trajectory, systolic BP increased from 105 to 124 mm Hg. During 31,936 person-years of follow-up (median 7.7 years), 339 participants developed incident CKD. CKD incidence rates were 8.9, 9.6, and 17.8 cases per 1000 person-years in participants with decreasing, stable, and increasing systolic BP trajectories, respectively. In multivariable cause-specific Cox analysis, after adjustment of baseline eGFR, systolic BP, and other confounders, increasing systolic BP trajectory associated with a 1.57-fold higher risk of incident CKD (95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 2.06) compared with a stable trajectory. There was a significant effect modification of baseline systolic BP on the association between systolic BP trajectories and CKD risk ( value for interaction =0.02), and this association was particularly evident in participants with baseline systolic BP <120 mm Hg. In addition, increasing systolic BP trajectory versus a stable trajectory was associated with higher risk of new development of albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS:Increasing systolic BP over time without reaching the hypertension threshold is associated with a significantly increased risk of incident CKD in healthy adults.
Population heterogeneity in trajectories of midlife blood pressure.
Wills Andrew K,Lawlor Debbie A,Muniz-Terrera Graciela,Matthews Fiona,Cooper Rachel,Ghosh Arjun K,Kuh Diana,Hardy Rebecca,
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
BACKGROUND:We investigated whether there are subgroups with different underlying (latent) trajectories of midlife systolic blood pressure (BP), diastolic BP, and pulse pressure in a UK cohort. METHODS:Data are from 1840 men and 1819 women with BP measured at ages 36, 43, and 53 years. We used unconditional growth mixture models to test for the presence of latent trajectory classes. Extracted classes were described in terms of a number of known lifetime risk factors, and linked to the risk of undiagnosed angina (Rose questionnaire) at age 53 years. RESULTS:In both sexes for systolic BP, diastolic BP, and pulse pressure, there was a large "normative" class (>90% of the sample) characterized by gentle annual increases (eg, an increase in male systolic BP of 0.9 mm Hg/year [95% confidence interval = 0.9 to 1.0]), with a smaller class for whom the rate of increase was high (eg, an increase in male systolic BP of 3.1 mm Hg/year [2.8 to 3.4]). In women, there was an additional class for whom BP was high at age 36 and remained high. Persons in the "normative" classes were, on average, heavier at birth and taller at age 7 years, had a lower midlife body mass index, and were less likely to be on antihypertensive medication compared with those in other classes. Among those with no diagnosed cardiovascular disease, those in the classes with more strongly increasing systolic BP and pulse pressure were at greatest risk of angina. CONCLUSION:Our study suggests that in midlife the majority of the population have a gentle underlying increase in BP, but that there also exists an important subgroup in whom BP increases much more markedly. These classes may be useful for identifying those most at risk for cardiovascular disease.
Blood pressure in frail older adults: associations with cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality.
Masoli Jane A H,Delgado Joao,Pilling Luke,Strain David,Melzer David
Age and ageing
BACKGROUND:Blood pressure (BP) management in frail older people is challenging. An randomised controlled trial of largely non-frail older people found cardiovascular and mortality benefit with systolic (S) BP target <120 mmHg. However, all-cause mortality by attained BP in routine care in frail adults aged above 75 is unclear. OBJECTIVES:To estimate observational associations between baseline BP and mortality/cardiovascular outcomes in a primary-care population aged above 75, stratified by frailty. METHODS:Prospective observational analysis using electronic health records (clinical practice research datalink, n = 415,980). We tested BP associations with cardiovascular events and mortality using competing and Cox proportional-hazards models respectively (follow-up ≤10 years), stratified by baseline electronic frailty index (eFI: fit (non-frail), mild, moderate, severe frailty), with sensitivity analyses on co-morbidity, cardiovascular risk and BP trajectory. RESULTS:Risks of cardiovascular outcomes increased with SBPs >150 mmHg. Associations with mortality varied between non-frail <85 and frail 75-84-year-olds and all above 85 years. SBPs above the 130-139-mmHg reference were associated with lower mortality risk, particularly in moderate to severe frailty or above 85 years (e.g. 75-84 years: 150-159 mmHg Hazard Ratio (HR) mortality compared to 130-139: non-frail HR = 0.94, 0.92-0.97; moderate/severe frailty HR = 0.84, 0.77-0.92). SBP <130 mmHg and Diastolic(D)BP <80 mmHg were consistently associated with excess mortality, independent of BP trajectory toward the end of life. CONCLUSIONS:In representative primary-care patients aged ≥75, BP <130/80 was associated with excess mortality. Hypertension was not associated with increased mortality at ages above 85 or at ages 75-84 with moderate/severe frailty, perhaps due to complexities of co-existing morbidities. The priority given to aggressive BP reduction in frail older people requires further evaluation.
Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectories in the Acute Phase and Clinical Outcomes in 2-Year Follow-up Among Patients With Ischemic Stroke.
Li Changwei,Zhang Yonghong,Xu Tan,Peng Hao,Wang Dali,Xu Tian,Sun Yingxian,Bu Xiaoqing,Chen Chung-Shiuan,Wang Aili,Wang Jinchao,Li Qunwei,Ju Zhong,Geng Deqin,Zhang Jintao,Chen Jing,He Jiang,
American journal of hypertension
BACKGROUND:Optimal blood pressure (BP) levels during acute ischemic stroke have not been established. We studied associations between systolic BP trajectories during acute phase and subsequent clinical outcomes among patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS:A total of 4,036 patients with acute ischemic stroke and elevated BP from the China Antihypertensive Trial in Acute Ischemic Stroke trial were included in this analysis. Three BPs were measured every 2 hours in day 1, every 4 hours during days 2 and 3, and every 8 hours thereafter until hospital discharge or death. Clinical outcomes were assessed at 3, 12, and 24 months. Latent variable mixture modeling was used to identify subgroups that share a similar underlying trajectory of systolic BP during the first 7 days after stroke onset. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations between systolic BP trajectories and clinical outcomes during follow-up. RESULTS:We identified 5 systolic BP trajectories of high, high-to-moderate-low, moderate-high, moderate-low, and low. Compared to participants in high trajectory, multiple-adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) of all-cause mortality at 3 months for individuals in high-to-moderate-low, moderate-high, moderate-low, and low were 0.34 (0.15-0.77), 0.58 (0.32-1.04), 0.29 (0.15-0.56), and 0.56 (0.26-1.19), respectively. Likewise, the corresponding hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in 24 months were 0.66 (0.44-1.00), 0.74 (0.53-1.05), 0.45 (0.32-0.66), and 0.61 (0.40-0.93), respectively. Similar associations were observed for recurrent stroke and cardiovascular disease, and in both the intervention and control groups. CONCLUSIONS:Patients with moderate-low systolic BP during acute ischemic stroke had a lower risk of adverse clinical outcomes.
Life-course blood pressure trajectories and cardiovascular diseases: A population-based cohort study in China.
Xu Yongshi,Möller Jette,Wang Rui,Liang Yajun
BACKGROUND:The patterns of blood pressure trajectory (i.e., change over time) over life-course remain to be explored. In this study, we aim to determine the trajectories of systolic blood pressure (SBP) from adulthood to late life and to assess its impact on the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). METHODS:Based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey, a total of 3566 participants aged 20-50 years at baseline (1989) with at least three SBP measurements during 1989-2011 were included. SBP was measured through physical examination, and socio-demographic factors, lifestyles, medications, and CVDs were based on self-reported questionnaire. Latent class growth modeling was performed to examine SBP trajectory. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from logistic regression was used to determine the association between SBP trajectory and CVDs. RESULTS:Five trajectory groups of SBP were identified: Class 1: rapid increase (n = 113, 3.2%); Class 2: slight increase (n = 1958, 54.9%); Class 3: stable (n = 614, 17.2%); Class 4: increase (n = 800, 22.4%); Class 5: fluctuant (n = 81, 2.3%). After adjustment of demographic factors, baseline SBP, and lifestyles, compared with the "slight increase" group, the OR (95% CI) of CVDs was 0.65 (0.32, 1.28) for "stable" group, 2.24 (1.40, 3.58) for "increase" group, 3.95 (1.81, 8.62) for "rapid increase" group, and 4.32 (1.76, 10.57) for "fluctuant" group. After stratified by use of antihypertensive drugs, the association was only significant for "rapid increase" group among those using antihypertensive drugs with OR (95% CI) of 2.81 (1.01, 7.77). CONCLUSIONS:Having a rapidly increasing SBP over life-course is associated with a higher risk of CVDs. This implies the importance of monitoring lifetime change of blood pressure for the prevention of CVDs.
Importance of therapy intensification and medication nonadherence for blood pressure control in patients with coronary disease.
Ho P Michael,Magid David J,Shetterly Susan M,Olson Kari L,Peterson Pamela N,Masoudi Frederick A,Rumsfeld John S
Archives of internal medicine
BACKGROUND:Despite the importance of blood pressure (BP) control in secondary prevention, a significant proportion of patients with coronary disease have uncontrolled BP. METHODS:This retrospective cohort study of patients with coronary disease (N = 10 447) evaluated the impact of medication nonadherence and therapy intensification on reaching target BP goals. Medication adherence was calculated as the proportion of days covered for filled prescriptions of antihypertensive medications. Therapy intensification included dosage increase or increase in number of antihypertensive medications. The primary outcome was uncontrolled systolic BP (SBP) over time, using a latent class model that incorporated longitudinal SBP data and assigned patients to SBP trajectory groups. Multivariable regression evaluated the association between medication nonadherence (ie, proportion of days covered, <0.80) and therapy intensification with SBP control over time, with adjustment for demographics and clinical characteristics. RESULTS:Three SBP trajectory groups were identified: (1) patients with BP that remained controlled (ie, SBP, <or=140 mm Hg) over time (n = 9114 [87.2%]); (2) patients with high BP that became controlled (n = 779 [7.5%]); and (3) patients with BP that remained high over time (n = 554 [5.3%]). In multivariable analyses, therapy intensification (odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.70) and medication nonadherence (odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.34-2.24) were associated with uncontrolled BP compared with high SBP that became controlled over time. CONCLUSIONS:These findings suggest that medication nonadherence can help explain why BP levels remained elevated despite intensification of antihypertensive medications. Successful BP control is seen with a combination of intensification and adherence, suggesting that therapy intensification must be coupled with interventions to enhance medication adherence.
Blood pressure trajectories from midlife to late life in relation to dementia in women followed for 37 years.
Joas Erik,Bäckman Kristoffer,Gustafson Deborah,Ostling Svante,Waern Margda,Guo Xinxin,Skoog Ingmar
Hypertension (Dallas, Tex. : 1979)
Higher midlife blood pressure increases risk for dementia. To further understand the relation between blood pressure and dementia, it is necessary to examine evolution of blood pressure from midlife to late life. We examined blood pressure trajectories using linear mixed models in a representative sample of middle-aged women (N=1462) who were followed from 1968-1969 until 2005-2006 with comprehensive medical and neuropsychiatric examinations. Dementia was diagnosed according to established criteria. Among those not treated with antihypertensives, higher systolic blood pressure at baseline but not blood pressure trajectories from 1968 to 1992 was associated with dementia and Alzheimer disease. Those with history of antihypertensive treatment had higher baseline systolic blood pressure than those who were never treated. In this group, those who developed dementia and Alzheimer disease had lower baseline systolic blood pressure and steeper increase in systolic blood pressure from 1968 to 1992 than those who did not. A steeper decline in systolic blood pressure during the later part of the study was observed in those who developed dementia regardless of antihypertensive treatment. The latter association was attenuated or disappeared when adjusting for body mass index. The association between blood pressure and dementia is complex and influenced by antihypertensive treatment. The findings emphasize the importance of detecting increased blood pressure in midlife and controlling blood pressure in those treated. Whether the trajectory of blood pressure is a risk factor or part of the clinical course of dementia needs to be elucidated.
Systolic blood pressure trajectory and cardiovascular outcomes: An analysis using data in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial.
Lee Chia-Lin,Wang Jun-Sing
International journal of clinical practice
BACKGROUND:Blood pressure changes in response to medication intensification differ over time across individuals, and could affect their cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed to investigate the relationship between systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectory and cardiovascular outcomes using data from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT). METHODS:Groups of SBP trajectory were modelled separately in the standard and intensive treatment groups. SBP at each site visit post randomisation were used for modelling by group-based trajectory with latent class growth model. We classified six SBP trajectories (on target [reference group], near target, and off target in the intensive treatment group; on target-below 130, on target-below 140, and off target in the standard treatment group). A Cox-proportional hazard model was used to analyse the effects of SBP trajectory on the primary composite outcome, death from any cause, and the composite of the primary outcome or death from any cause. RESULTS:The respective mean SBP was 119 ± 5, 128 ± 6, 141 ± 8, 124 ± 4, 136 ± 4, and 147 ± 6 mm Hg. With respect to the primary composite outcomes, the standard-on target (below 130) had the highest risk (adjusted hazard ratio [lower to upper confidence interval], 2.525 [1.865-3.420]), despite its mean SBP was the second lowest of the six groups. The standard-on target (below 140) had a higher risk (1.323 [1.056-1.657]) when compared with the intensive-on target. However, the standard-on target (below 140) had a similar risk (1.12 [0.861-1.458]) when compared with the intensive-near target, despite an 8 mm Hg difference in mean SBP (136 vs 128 mm Hg, P < .001). CONCLUSION:An SBP treatment target of <120 mm Hg was only associated with a better cardiovascular outcome compared with a treatment target of <140 mm Hg, provided that the target of <120 mm Hg was reached. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01206062. Registered 21 September 2010.
Multi-trajectory modeling of home blood pressure telemonitoring utilization among hypertensive patients in China: A latent class growth analysis.
Ye Ting,Zhang Pei,Ouyang Zhaolian,Yang Jiajuan,Xu Chengzhong,Pan Zijing,Wu Zhouzhi,Zhang Liang,Li Boyang
International journal of medical informatics
BACKGROUND:Home blood pressure telemonitoring (HBPT) has great potential in improving blood pressure (BP) control among patients with hypertension. However, the longitudinal use trajectories of HBPT have not been identified yet. In addition, there has been a lack of understanding of the relationship between developmental trajectories of HBPT and BP control over time. The primary goal of this study was to identify the longitudinal trajectories of using HBPT among hypertensive patients and to explore the relationship between longitudinal trajectories of HBPT use patterns and BP control. METHODS:A total of 122 hypertensive patients were enrolled consecutively in Xiling, Huayan, Baisha and Xueyuan communities in Yichang City, Hubei Province, China. Each patient was provided with a portable monitoring device which has unlimited data service at the time of enrollment. Socio-demographics (e.g. name, age, sex, marital status) were collected at baseline. Real-time data including systolic and diastolic blood pressure were automatically uploaded to cloud platform through devices. Latent class growth analysis was conducted to determine the latent trajectory of HBPT use. Joint trajectory method was used to correlate the longitudinal trajectories of HBPT utilization and BP control status. RESULTS:Five trajectories were identified which are persistently low (47.1%), moderate with decreasing (23.9%), sharply decreasing (11.2%), high with decreasing (11.3%) and persistently high with increasing (6.6%). There was no statistically significant difference among 5 trajectories in the baseline survey in terms of age, marital status, BP (both SBP and DBP) and BP control status. However, there was a strong positive correlation between the HBPT utilization pattern and BP control status over time. CONCLUSIONS:The latent trajectories of HBPT utilization were identified in our study. However, no predictors of trajectory membership were identified. Nevertheless, we have demonstrated that HBPT was to some extent positively correlated with improved BP control, and this correlation still needs to be further proved.
Blood pressure trajectory and category and risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in nulliparous women.
Hauspurg Alisse,Parry Samuel,Mercer Brian M,Grobman William,Hatfield Tamera,Silver Robert M,Parker Corette B,Haas David M,Iams Jay D,Saade George R,Wapner Ronald J,Reddy Uma M,Simhan Hyagriv
American journal of obstetrics and gynecology
BACKGROUND:Recently updated American College of Cardiology/ American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines redefine blood pressure categories as stage 1 hypertension (systolic, 130-139 mm Hg or diastolic, 80-89 mm Hg), elevated (systolic, 120-129 mm Hg and diastolic, <80 mm Hg), and normal (<120/<80 mm Hg), but their relevance to an obstetric population is uncertain. OBJECTIVE:We sought to evaluate the risk of gestational hypertension or preeclampsia based on early pregnancy blood pressure category and trajectory. STUDY DESIGN:We utilized data from the Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study: Monitoring Mothers-to-Be cohort, a prospective observational study of nulliparous women with singleton pregnancies conducted at 8 clinical sites between 2010 and 2014. Women included in this analysis had no known history of prepregnancy hypertension (blood pressure, ≥140/90 mm Hg) or diabetes. We compared the frequency of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia and gestational hypertension, among women based on ACC/AHA blood pressure category at a first-trimester study visit and blood pressure trajectory between study visits in the first and second trimesters. Blood pressure trajectories were categorized based on blood pressure difference between visits 1 and 2 as stable (<5 mm Hg difference), upward (≥5 mm Hg), or downward (≤-5 mm Hg). Associations of blood pressure category and trajectory with preeclampsia and gestational hypertension were assessed via univariate analysis and multinomial logistic regression analysis with covariates identified a priori. RESULTS:A total of 8899 women were included in the analysis. Study visit 1 occurred at a mean gestational age of 11.6 ± 1.5 weeks and study visit 2 at a mean gestational age of 19.0 ± 1.6 weeks. First-trimester blood pressure category was significantly associated with both preeclampsia and gestational hypertension, with increasing blood pressure category associated with a higher risk of all hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Elevated blood pressure was associated with an adjusted relative risk of 1.54 (95% confidence interval, 1.18-2.02) and stage 1 hypertension was associated with adjusted relative risk of 2.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.31-3.57) of any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. Stage 1 hypertension was associated with the highest risk of preeclampsia with severe features, with an adjusted relative risk of 2.48 (95% confidence interval, 1.38-8.74). Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure trajectories were also significantly associated with the risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy independent of blood pressure category (P < .001). Women with a blood pressure categorized as normal and with an upward systolic trajectory had a 41% increased risk of any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (adjusted relative risk, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.65) compared to women with a downward systolic trajectory. CONCLUSION:In nulliparous women, blood pressure category and trajectory in early pregnancy are independently associated with risk of preeclampsia and gestational hypertension. Our study demonstrates that blood pressure categories with lower thresholds than those traditionally used to identify individuals as hypertensive may identify more women at risk for preeclampsia and gestational hypertension.
Trajectory Groups of 24-Hour Systolic Blood Pressure After Acute Ischemic Stroke and Recurrent Vascular Events.
Kim Beom Joon,Cho Yong-Jin,Hong Keun-Sik,Lee Jun,Kim Joon-Tae,Choi Kang Ho,Park Tai Hwan,Park Sang-Soon,Park Jong-Moo,Kang Kyusik,Lee Soo Joo,Kim Jae Guk,Cha Jae-Kwan,Kim Dae-Hyun,Nah Hyun-Wook,Lee Byung-Chul,Yu Kyung-Ho,Oh Mi-Sun,Kim Dong-Eog,Ryu Wi-Sun,Choi Jay Chol,Kim Wook-Joo,Shin Dong-Ick,Yeo Min-Ju,Sohn Sung Il,Hong Jeong-Ho,Lee Ji Sung,Lee Juneyoung,Han Moon-Ku,Gorelick Philip B,Bae Hee-Joon
Background and Purpose- Blood pressure dynamics in patients with acute ischemic stroke may serve as an important modifiable and prognostic factor. Methods- A total of 8376 patients with acute ischemic stroke were studied from a prospective multicenter registry. Patients were eligible if they had been admitted within 24 hours of symptom onset and had ≥5 systolic blood pressure (SBP) measurements during the first 24 hours of hospitalization. SBP trajectory groups in the first 24 hours were identified using the TRAJ procedure in SAS software with delta-Bayesian Information Criterion and prespecified modeling parameters. Vascular events, including recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, and death, were prospectively collected. The risk of having vascular events was calculated using the frailty model to adjust for clustering by hospital. Results- The group-based trajectory model classified patients with acute ischemic stroke into 5 SBP trajectory groups: low (22.3%), moderate (40.8%), rapidly stabilized (11.9%), acutely elevated (18.5%), and persistently high (6.4%) SBP. The risk of having vascular events was increased in the acutely elevated (hazard ratio, 1.28 [95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.47]) and the persistently high SBP groups (hazard ratio, 1.67 [95% confidence interval, 1.37-2.04]) but not in the rapidly stabilized group (hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.34]), when compared with the moderate SBP group. Conclusions- SBP during the first 24 hours after acute ischemic stroke may be categorized into distinct trajectory groups, which differ in relation to stroke characteristics and frequency of subsequent recurrent vascular event risks. The findings may help to recognize potential candidates for future blood pressure control trials.
Mid- to Late-Life Trajectories of Blood Pressure and the Risk of Stroke: The Rotterdam Study.
Portegies Marileen L P,Mirza Saira Saeed,Verlinden Vincentius J A,Hofman Albert,Koudstaal Peter J,Swanson Sonja A,Ikram M Arfan
Hypertension (Dallas, Tex. : 1979)
Hypertension is a major modifiable risk factor for stroke. Associations of blood pressure with incident stroke are mostly based on single or average blood pressure levels. However, this approach does not take into account long-term trajectories of blood pressure, which can vary considerably in the elderly. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we examined trajectories of systolic blood pressure in 6745 participants (60.0% women) over an age-range from 55 to 106 years and jointly modeled their risk of stroke and competing causes of death using joint latent class mixed modeling. Four trajectories were identified. Class 1 was characterized by blood pressure increasing gradually from on average 120 to 160 mm Hg over 5 decades (n=4938). Compared with this class, class 2, characterized by a similar midlife blood pressure, but a steep increase (n=822, increasing from 120 to 200 mm Hg), and class 4, characterized by a high midlife blood pressure (n=115; average 160 mm Hg) and had a higher risk of stroke and death. Class 3, characterized by a moderate midlife blood pressure (n=870; average 140 mm Hg), had a similar risk of death as class 1, but the highest risk of stroke. Assessing trajectories of blood pressure provides a more nuanced understanding of the associations between blood pressure, stroke, and mortality. In particular, high blood pressure and rapidly increasing blood pressure patterns are associated with a high risk of stroke and death, whereas moderately high blood pressure is only related to an increased risk of stroke. Future studies should explore the potential pathogenic significance of these patterns.