Development and validation of a nomogram incorporating selected systemic inflammation-based prognostic marker for complication prediction after vascularized fibula flap reconstruction.
Liu Zhongqi,Wu Haixuan,Liufu Ning,Cheng Shi,Huang Haoquan,Hu Chuwen,Cao Minghui
OBJECTIVE:To develop and validate a nomogram incorporating systemic inflammatory markers (the Albumin/NLR Score [ANS]) to predict postoperative complications after vascularized fibula flap reconstruction. PATIENTS AND METHODS:A total of 238 patients who underwent vascularized fibula flap reconstruction between March 2012 and December 2016 were collected as the primary cohort. Univariable and multivariable analysis were performed to identify independent risk factors for postoperative complications. Backward stepwise logistic regression analysis was then applied with and without the ANS; and nomograms were established based on these criteria. Independent validation of these nomograms was carried out in an independent validation cohort including 106 consecutive patients from December 2016 and January 2018. RESULTS:Radiotherapy history (odds ratio [OR] = 0.336; 95% CI, 0.157-0.717; P = 0.005), the ANS (OR = 0.248; 95% CI, 0.093-0.661; P = 0.005) and fluid infusion rate over 24 h (OR = 0.671; 95% CI, 0.479-0.94; P = 0.02) were identified as independent risk factors for postoperative complications. A higher C-index was found in both the primary (0.759; 95% CI, 0.719-0.739) and validation cohort (0.704; 95% CI, 0.613-0.659) for the nomogram incorporating the ANS, and NRI was 0.496 (95% CI, 0.072-0.920; P = 0.022) comparing of these nomograms. Furthermore, a wider threshold probability (0.2-0.9) and superior clinical value were observed in the nomogram incorporating the ANS on the decision curve. CONCLUSION:The ANS was an independent risk factor for postoperative complications associated with vascularized fibula flap reconstruction. The nomogram incorporating the ANS was established with better accuracy and showed more potential clinical benefit for the estimation of postoperative complications.
Comprehensive Analysis of the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio for Preoperative Prognostic Prediction Nomogram in Gastric Cancer.
Choi Jong-Ho,Suh Yun-Suhk,Choi Yunhee,Han Jiyeon,Kim Tae Han,Park Shin-Hoo,Kong Seong-Ho,Lee Hyuk-Joon,Yang Han-Kwang
World journal of surgery
BACKGROUND:The role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and preoperative prediction model in gastric cancer is controversial, while postoperative prognostic models are available. This study investigated NLR as a preoperative prognostic indicator in gastric cancer. METHODS:We reviewed patients with primary gastric cancer who underwent surgery during 2007-2010. Preoperative clinicopathologic factors were analyzed with their interaction and used to develop a prognosis prediction nomogram. That preoperative prediction nomogram was compared to a nomogram using pTNM or a historical postoperative prediction nomogram. The contribution of NLR to a preoperative nomogram was evaluated with integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). RESULTS:Using 2539 records, multivariable analysis revealed that NLR was one of the independent prognostic factors and had a significant interaction with only age among other preoperative factors (especially significant in patients < 50 years old). NLR was constantly significant between 1.1 and 3.1 without any distinctive cutoff value. Preoperative prediction nomogram using NLR showed a Harrell's C-index of 0.79 and an R of 25.2%, which was comparable to the C-index of 0.78 and 0.82 and R of 26.6 and 25.8% from nomogram using pTNM and a historical postoperative prediction nomogram, respectively. IDI of NLR to nomogram in the overall population was 0.65%, and that of patients < 50 years old was 2.72%. CONCLUSIONS:NLR is an independent prognostic factor for gastric cancer, especially in patients < 50 years old. A preoperative prediction nomogram using NLR can predict prognosis of gastric cancer as effectively as pTNM and a historical postoperative prediction nomogram.