Predictive value of inflammation-based Glasgow prognostic score, platelet-lymphocyte ratio, and global registry of acute coronary events score for major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events during hospitalization in patients with acute myocardial infarction.
Xu Xiaoqun,Cai Long,Chen Tielong,Ding Shibiao,Zhang Fengwei,Gao Beibei,Zhu Houyong,Huang Jinyu
PURPOSE:The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive ability of the inflammation-based Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score and combined diagnostic models for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACEs) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS:In this retrospective cohort study, eligible patients were required to meet the third global definition of myocardial infarction. The primary outcome of this study was the occurrence of MACEs during hospitalization. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess the predictive ability of the GPS, PLR, GRACE scores, and joint diagnostic models for primary outcomes; univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. FINDINGS:A total of 175 patients were enrolled. The results of the univariate ROC curve analysis for the incidence of MACEs during hospitalization showed that the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.780 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.696-0.864) for the GPS, 0.766 (95% CI 0.682-0.850) for the redefined GPS (RGPS), 0.561 (95% CI 0.458-0.664) for the PLR score (PLRS), and 0.793 (95% CI 0.706-0.880) for GRACE. Multivariate ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC value was 0.809 (95% CI 0.726-0.893) for the GPS combined with GRACE, 0.783 (95% CI 0.701-0.864) for the GPS combined with the PLRS, 0.794 (95% CI 0.707-0.880) for GRACE combined with the PLRS, and 0.841 (95% CI 0.761-0.921) for the GPS combined with GRACE and the PLRS. The combined diagnostic model including the GPS plus GRACE and the PLRS had a higher AUC value than the GPS, RGPS and GRACE models (P = 0.014, P = 0.004, and P = 0.038, respectively). The multivariate logistic regression model showed that the odds ratio for hospitalized MACEs was 5.573 (95% CI 1.588-19.554) for GPS scores of 2 versus 0, and the GRACE score was also an independent risk factor for MACEs, with an odds ratio of 1.023 (95% CI 1.009-1.036). IMPLICATIONS:The diagnostic model combining the GPS plus GRACE and the PLRS has better predictive ability for the occurrence of MACEs during hospitalization than each single score. Thus, the use of a combined GPS plus GRACE and PLRS model will be of clinical benefit in a broad group of individuals with AMI.
Addition of routinely measured blood biomarkers significantly improves GRACE risk stratification in patients with myocardial infarction.
van Toorenburg M,van den Berg V J,van der Ploeg T,Heestermans A A,Dirksen M T,Hautvast R W,Drexhage O,Boersma E,Kardys I,Umans V A W M
International journal of cardiology
AIM:To investigate whether blood biomarkers measured routinely at hospital admission in myocardial infarction (MI) patients can improve the admission GRACE score for the composite endpoint of all-cause mortality and non-fatal MI at 6 months. METHODS:2055 patients treated for MI in the Northwest clinics, the Netherlands, between 2013 and 2016 were examined. As part of the prevailing MI treatment protocol, 19 biomarkers were measured and the GRACE score was ascertained. Information on the composite endpoint was derived from municipal registries and electronic medical records. We applied elastic net logistic regression (LR) analysis to select biomarkers that had statistically significant additive prognostic value on top of the GRACE score. We then studied the prognostic performance of the LR model containing the GRACE score and the selected biomarkers. RESULTS:At six months follow-up 143 (6.96%) reached the composite endpoint. Nine variables were included in the final LR model: GRACE score, urea, sodium, potassium, alkaline phosphatase, LDL cholesterol, glucose, hemoglobin and C-reactive protein. This extended GRACE score model showed improved discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.70, p = <0.001) and classification (continuous net reclassification index 0.49, p < 0.001) compared with the GRACE score only. CONCLUSION:The ability of the GRACE score for detecting MI patients at high risk for mortality or MI within 6 months, was significantly improved by adding several biomarkers measured routinely at admission.
Neutrophil count improves the GRACE risk score prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction.
Zhang Sumei,Wan Zhaofei,Zhang Yongai,Fan Yan,Gu Wei,Li Fei,Meng Li,Zeng Xiaoyan,Han Dongfang,Li Xiaomei
OBJECTIVE:Both the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and neutrophil count could predict clinical outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndromes. However, the ability of them to identify high risk patients leaves room for improvement. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate whether the combination of them could have a better performance in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS:A total of 1287 consecutive STEMI patients were recruited at two centers in China. Neutrophil count was measured and the GRACE risk score was calculated. RESULTS:During a median period of 37 months (IQR, 29-47), 135 (10.9%) patients had major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including 116 all-cause death. Neutrophil count and the GRACE risk score were higher in patients with MACE. Both neutrophil count and the GRACE score were significant and independent predictors for MACE [HR: 1.260 (1.203-1.319), P < 0.001; HR: 1.007 (1.002-1.011), P < 0.001; respectively). Combination of them increased the area under the ROC (0.698 vs. 0.796, P < 0.001). The addition of neutrophil count to GRACE model enhanced net reclassification improvement (0.637, P = 0.020) and integrated discrimination improvement (0.180, P < 0.001), suggesting effective discrimination and reclassification. CONCLUSION:Both neutrophil count and the GRACE risk score are independent predictors for MACE in patients with STEMI. A combination of them could derive a more accurate prediction for clinical outcomes in these patients.
A Synergistic Effect of Lp(a) and GRACE Score on Cardiovascular Risk in Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Cohort Study From China.
Hu Chengping,Liu Jinxing,Han Hongya,Sun Yan,Cheng Yujing,Liu Yan,Gao Ang,Zhou Yujie,Zhang Jianwei,Zhao Yingxin
Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine
Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] has been thought as an independent risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score is used to predict the risk of death or death/non-fatal myocardial infarction in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). It suggests that there may be a synergism between Lp(a) and the GRACE risk score on predicting cardiovascular events. Accordingly, this study aimed to test the hypothesis that Lp(a)-related cardiovascular risk could be significantly modulated by the GRACE risk score in patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients hospitalized with ACS undergoing PCI were enrolled and followed up for 18 months. The primary outcome was the composite of death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and unplanned repeat revascularization. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to determine the relationship between Lp(a) and cardiovascular events. A total of 6,309 patients were included (age: 60.1 ± 10.06 years, male: 75.2%, BMI: 26.2 ± 10.57 kg/m). A total of 310 (4.9%) cardiovascular events occurred. When the overall population was stratified by a GRACE score of 91 or less vs. more than 91 and by tertiles of Lp(a), higher Lp(a) was significantly associated with cardiovascular events only when the GRACE score was <91(tertile 2 vs. tertile 1: HR 1.31, 95% CI: 0.86-1.98, = 0.205; tertile 3 vs. tertile 1: HR 1.94, 95% CI: 1.32-2.84, = 0.001; = 0.002). However, no such significant correlation between cardiovascular events and Lp(a) emerged in the case of a GRACE score 91 or less, and there was a significant interaction for cardiovascular events between Lp(a) tertiles and dichotomized GRACE scores ( < 0.001). In ACS patients undergoing PCI, there was a synergistic effect between the GRACE risk score and on-statins Lp(a) on predicting cardiovascular events. This finding could help us more accurately identify patients who would benefit most from Lp(a)-lowering treatment.